tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6602457397086974402024-03-13T19:05:51.435+02:00Philip AtticusCommentary on the intersection of politics, economics, debt and life behind the curtain. Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.comBlogger418125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-18516900915658104852018-07-24T16:20:00.000+03:002018-07-24T18:09:48.944+03:00A Note on the Fires in Athens<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yesterday,
on Monday, 23 July, two major fires broke out in or near the Attica region. The
first was at Kineta, near Megara. This fire broke out in a forested area along the
national road.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The second
fire or fires broke out along the shoreline to the north east of the capital, in the
area between Rafina and Mati. This is a heavily-forested urban area, where houses,
apartments and hotels are located between the shoreline and national road, and
above the national road on the foothills of Mount Penteli. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A few items
of interest:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Arial Nova Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Nova Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">High winds and dry weather: The
winds yesterday were exceptionally strong, with wind gusts of up to 85 km/hour
reported. These were seen first hand even in the centre of Athens. These are absolutely fatal conditions for a fire. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Arial Nova Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Nova Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the Rafina / Mati area, winds
change direction rapidly due to a number of geomorphological, marine and climactic
factors. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Arial Nova Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Nova Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While I do not know the Kineta area,
I am very familiar with the entire stretch between Rafina and Schinias. This area is characterized by very narrow streets and is totally
covered with pine trees. There are also a number of steep valleys or gulleys
that often block road access and are conduits for flames. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Photos
taken in the aftermath of the fires show burnt cars blocking roads. We can
assume that as people fled, traffic barriers and heavy smoke would have impeded
their flight. As the wind changed, the fire would have moved more rapidly than
a running person, leaping from pine tree to pine tree. The trees would have
ignited immediately, together with the entire ground which is usually covered
with pine needles and other dessicated plants and shrubs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">According
to Kathimerini and Skai News, one group of 26 people were fleeing towards the sea
when they were stopped by flames approximately 30 meters from the waves. I can only
imagine the terror induced by the heat, the high smoke and the panic. All 26
died. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">During the
fire, and in the aftermath, two theories broke out:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: left; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Arial Nova Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Nova Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The first was that this was an act
of arson by propery developers, who want to burn the land in order to build on
it. I can’t see this happening in Rafina – Mati. This area is within an urban
area, so the practice of burning and then squatting would not normally be a motivating
factor. I presume that enough of the land plots are registered in the national cadaster.
I can also attest that every serious buyer today looks very carefully at whether
a land plot falls in the forest area or not, and makes their decisions
accordingly. Finally, I remind everyone that Greece remains in a deep economic depression despite recent headline macro numbers, and I find it improbable that new building is taking place given the vast number of unsold properties on the market. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Arial Nova Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Arial Nova Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The second was that this was an act
of arson by a specific foreign country which wanted revenge over a recent diplomatic
incident. I give very little credence to this scenario. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I do not
know if arson or politics were involved. But I do know that every year, fires are started everywhere
in Greece by drivers throwing lit cigarette butts out their car window. I have
witnessed this happening, and I have also witnessed the aftermath. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I have also
heard many voices blaming the state, and its lack of preparedness. Normally, I
am one of the harshest critics, as this blog attests. However, I can also state
that this terrain is simply very difficult, if not impossible, to protect
against fire. Both streets and lots are literally covered with pine trees. The
lots and streets are small, and narrow, so it is very easy for fire to leap
from tree to tree, which it does with alarming speed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Together
with the high smoke, the wind speed and the wind direction change, I am not
sure any fire brigade could have coped with this
event. And unless residents were prepared to cut down pine trees (which are
cherished for their shade), I don’t see how effective fire breaks could have been
prepared, absent razing built up areas to create 30- or 50-meter wide fire
breaks. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While we could take further measures to mitigate the risks of fires of this kind, we should be under no illusions as to the social cost and cohesion needed to do so. Even Japan, which has invested hundreds of billions in disaster preparedness, has not been able to perfectly plan for every disaster. And Greece is far from being Japan in terms of social and government planning. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There is aerial
footage of the burnt areas here: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.iefimerida.gr/news/432976/skiniko-apokalypsis-sygklonistika-vinteo-apo-elikoptero-apotyponoyn-tin-tragodia-apo-ti"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.iefimerida.gr/news/432976/skiniko-apokalypsis-sygklonistika-vinteo-apo-elikoptero-apotyponoyn-tin-tragodia-apo-ti</span></a>
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The death
toll currently ranks at above 50, while many media are claiming above 60. It is
a human tragedy which is incomprehensible in our current times. It is a tragedy which sadly occurs every summer, though not in these numbers.
The last time the toll was so high was in 2007. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I would
like to respectfully suggest that we resist the natural impulse to rage at unknown figures, or the state, or
engage in conspiracy theories until further information comes to light. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the
meantime, the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://www.redcross.gr/default.asp?pid=40&la=1&artId=1231">Hellenic
Red Cross is collecting donations for the survivors</a></b>. I hope you will
join me in making a donation to them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.redcross.gr/default.asp?pid=40&la=1&artId=1231"><b><span style="color: blue;">http://www.redcross.gr/default.asp?pid=40&la=1&artId=1231</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">© Philip
Ammerman, 2018 </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-43825983702013682102017-02-11T11:54:00.000+02:002017-02-11T12:07:12.992+02:00Unelecting Trump, or the Dark Course of American Democracy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Sometime in late October, I mentioned in a
conversation on Facebook that one main concern I had about Donald Trump is that
it would be impossible to unelect him. His authoritarian tendencies, which have
also been exhibited by the Republican Party in the past 16 years, mean that the
rules would be changed to such an extent as to return either the same candidate
or his surrogate to power for a long time to come.</div>
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<span lang="EN-GB">How would this be possible? Anyone controlling
the Presidency, the Congress and soon the Supreme Court has extraordinary power
to influence elections, even though voting is a state responsibility. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB">Here is a simple catalogue of the alarming
trends that are occurring: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB">1.
Voter Suppression<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_suppression">Voter suppression</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> is a strategy to influence the outcome of an </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">election</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"> by discouraging or preventing people from </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">voting</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">. (Wikipedia) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Voter suppression has been
actively used in key battleground states like Florida (famously in the
1999/2000 vote recount) and Ohio. A <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_suppression_in_the_United_States">complete
list of voter suppression techniques</a> seen in the United States can be found
on Wikipedia. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The Center for American
Progress has a detailed list of actual cases of what it claims are voter
suppression in a <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2016/11/11/292322/voter-suppression-laws-cost-americans-their-voices-at-the-polls/">well-documented
article here</a>. Together with the fact that over 6 million convicted felons
cannot vote, it is clear that a significant number of the American people are
systematically being deprived of their right to vote. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Donald Trump has repeatedly
cast doubt on the electoral result, stating that he won by “millions of votes”,
and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/trump-is-still-concerned-about-voter-fraud/514319/">suggesting
that voter fraud is the reason he lost the popular vote</a> despite all
evidence to the contrary (to date). Given this approach, it is easy to
understand how a Trump Administration will choose to ignore further activities
in voter suppression in key states. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">2. Gerrymandering <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering">Gerrymandering</a> is the
process by which a state sets its voting district boundaries in order to
achieve a disproportionate political result for certain groups. Several states
in the US have extremely complex voting districts which have been defined as a
result of partisan gerrymandering. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">For more information on this,
please see:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/19/gerrymandering-supreme-court-us-election-north-carolina" style="text-indent: -18pt;">The
Guardian article</a><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;"> on North Carolina’s 12</span><sup style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">th</sup><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;"> Congressional District</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; font-family: "symbol"; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></li>
<li><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/13/this-is-actually-what-america-would-look-like-without-gerrymandering/?utm_term=.0438d9396689" style="text-indent: -18pt;">Washington
Post article</a><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;"> on what US voting districts might look like without
gerrymandering</span></li>
<li><a href="http://harvardpolitics.com/united-states/redrawing-america-gerrymandering-matters/" style="text-indent: -18pt;">Harvard
Political Review</a><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;"> brief on gerrymandering</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #1c1c1c;">Partisan gerrymandering is illegal
according to both the US Constitution and subsequent US law. As Wikipedia
notes:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Various
constitutional and statutory provisions may compel a court to strike down a
gerrymandered redistricting plan. At the federal level, the Supreme Court has
held that if a jurisdiction’s redistricting plan violates the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Protection_Clause"><span style="color: #092f9d; text-decoration: none;">Equal Protection
Clause</span></a> or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965"><span style="color: #092f9d; text-decoration: none;">Voting Rights
Act of 1965</span></a>, a federal court must order the jurisdiction to propose
a new redistricting plan that remedies the gerrymandering. If the jurisdiction
fails to propose a new redistricting plan, or its proposed redistricting plan
continues to violate the law, then the court itself must draw a redistricting
plan that cures the violation and use its equitable powers to impose the plan
on the jurisdiction</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">How would a Trump
Administration enhance gerrymandering? Three ways: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">By packing the
Supreme Court<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">By weakening the
Voting Rights Act of 1965, for instance by creating for intrusive needs for
voter registration and reducing the franchise<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l3 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">By refusing to
actively enforce these acts through the Attorney General’s office. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Jeff Sessions, who was
recently confirmed as Attorney General, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38915273">has already been
rejected by a Senate confirmation panel in 1986</a> due to allegations of voter
intimidation of blacks in Alabama. Mr. Session was, at that time, being
nominated as a federal judge. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">It is sadly notable that
conduct that condemned Mr. Sessions in 1986, during Ronald Reagan’s second
term, is considered acceptable in the Senate during Donald Trump’s first term. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">3. Fake News / Terrorism <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Donald Trump has, both during
his campaign but also as President, repeatedly trumpeted fake news, and has
conflated or wrongly attributed incidents of terrorism. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The list of fake news is now
too long to catalogue, but several parties have made valiant attempts. Here are
some:</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -18pt;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">The </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/business/media/trump-fake-news.html" style="text-indent: -18pt;">New
York Times inventories</a><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;"> some of the fake news spread by Donald Trump since 2011.</span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/30/read-all-about-it-the-biggest-fake-news-stories-of-2016.html" style="text-indent: -18pt;">CNBC
focuses on fake news</a><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;"> during the 2016 election</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Buzzfeed
reporting on </span><a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/how-macedonia-became-a-global-hub-for-pro-trump-misinfo?utm_term=.uunLP0YR0p#.je8EYp07p1" style="text-indent: -18pt;">hundreds
of pro-Trump websites managed from the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia</a></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Kellyanne Conway
recently referred to a non-existent “massacre”, the </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowling_Green_massacre" style="text-indent: -18pt;">Bowling Green
Massacre</a><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">, to justify the travel ban on refugees and citizens of 7 foreign
countries</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #1c1c1c;">Why does this matter? Donald
Trump has now normalised the fact that he spreads fake news. Prior to his
inauguration, this was considered acceptable by the people who voted for him.
He is now President of the United States, and it is clear that fake news is not
going to go away anytime soon.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">How will fake news affect
future elections? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">It will be
spread not only by the usual ecosystem of political surrogates and trollers,
but increasingly by elected officials. This is already occurring. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The virulence of
attacks on people for refusing to believe in fake news is now at an all-time
high. Note the language of <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/09/trump-attacks-mccain-over-criticism-outcome-yemen-raid/97687592/">Donald
Trump’s recent twitter attacks on John McCain over the Yemen raid</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo4; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">It will
increasingly conflate anti-terrorism with patriotism and with supporting
Republic candidates. This is an old script, first pioneered by George W. Bush
after the 9/11 attacks, and <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/la-na-republican-debate-20151215-story.html">repeatedly
enhanced since</a> by the Republican party. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">4. The Family Business <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/02/donald-trump-conflicts-of-interests/508382/">conflicts
of interest are increasingly well-documented</a>. He remains involved in the
Donald Trump Organisation, and has assigned management of this to his two sons.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The Trump organisation has <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/01/kim-albrecht-trump-data-viz/">hundreds of
business relationships with both foreign countries</a> and with <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-22/deutsche-bank-s-reworking-a-big-trump-loan-as-inauguration-nears">key
lenders such as Deutsche Bank</a>, that the US government is currently involved
with in regulation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">His daughter Ivanka, who has
her own business interests, remains an advisor, as does his son-in-law, Jared
Kushner. The Trump organisation has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-25/trump-hotels-to-triple-locations-in-u-s-expansion-ceo-says">announced
plans to expand nationally</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Trump’s past record of work in
dealing with complex property development codes and requirements in New York,
as well as his record of <a href="http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jun/21/hillary-clinton/yep-donald-trumps-companies-have-declared-bankrupt/">strategic
bankruptcies</a> and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-business-plan-left-a-trail-of-unpaid-bills-1465504454">non-payment
of suppliers</a> indicate that he knows how to use the public sector. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">USA Today has counted <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/pages/interactives/trump-lawsuits/">4,095
lawsuits against Donald Trump over the past 30 years</a>. How will a US
District or Federal Court rule in a case where the ultimate defendant is a
sitting President? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">It is apparent that the
incentives for using the Presidency to expand the personal wealth of Donald
Trump and his family members are fully aligned. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">5. The 1930s Playbook<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Nearly every aspect of Trump’s
business policy as expressed today could have been taken from a 1930’s
authoritarian playbook:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Condemn US
companies for “moving jobs abroad”</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Condemn free
trade, when recognising that more American jobs will be lost by pulling out of
key trade agreements such as NAFTA, particularly in key US sectors such as
automotive assembly and agricultural exports</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Threaten
successful foreign exporters, such as BMW, with a 35% tariff, while refusing to
recognise that Germany can retaliate with the same tariff</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Ignore the
tremendous inequality in the US tax system and household earnings by promising
yet more tax cuts for the very wealthy</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Appoint ideological
members of Cabinet who are intent on sabotaging and destroying the very
entities they have been appointed to lead</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Condemn the
press for “fake news” and “fake polls”</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Condemn specific
companies for failing to carry Ivanka Trump’s clothing line</span></li>
<li><span style="color: #1c1c1c; text-indent: -18pt;">Create an
unspecified foreign enemy (all refugees, all Muslims, all Chinese, all
Mexicans) and promise a grateful and impoverished nation protection and
strength.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #1c1c1c;">The list is long, and will no
doubt continue to grow in the next few years.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">6. Draining the Swamp and Lobbying<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The United States government
is the largest financial organisation in the world. It is also the world’s
largest single debtor (at the Federal level) and the largest absolute debtor
when combining the Federal Government, 50 State governments, municipalities,
the Federal Reserve, and organisations such as Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The incentives of doing
business with the US Government, as well as seeking regulatory abatement from
it, are simply too high to counteract. Donald Trump is a billionaire who is
appointing a Cabinet of billionaires. Does anyone really believe that the
business interests that gain so much from the government will suddenly change
their course? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br />
If anything, they will be emboldened. This pattern has been repeated throughout
history. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Why? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The question is really why
this is being done. The Republicans control all three branches of government:
Executive, Legislative, Judicial (at least embodied in the Supreme Court). This
sets the stage for a period of time in which they will be able to implement
their policy agenda, subject to the limit where internal Republican conflicts interfere with the process. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Given where things stand now,
I increasingly believe that protecting and extending political power is as
important as policy making for this Party. We see this in the patterns of
gerrymandering and voter suppression in Republican-controlled states. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">We also know what happened
when the <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/democrats-flunk-midterms">Democrats
lost the House in the first mid-term elections in 2010 the Senate in 2014</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">We see no hope of a rational
policy debate or voting system in the United States, and we see growing
corporate interests and other special interests influencing policy and voting results. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">We see that these interests <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>flourish regardless of the political
party in power</u></b>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">As a result, I am increasingly
pessimistic as to whether the United States can ever unelect Donald Trump, or
someone like him. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">As I have <a href="http://www.philipatticus.com/2016/10/politics-and-desert-of-real.html">written
in another post</a>, the United States resembles to me the Roman Republic in
its final days. We have just elected our man on a horse. Such men never go
quietly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1c1c1c; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">© Philip Ammerman, 2017 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
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<div class="MsoNormal">
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-25048452869302634882017-02-09T18:30:00.002+02:002017-02-09T18:45:09.505+02:00The Irrelevance of Resistance in the Senate Confirmation Hearings<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-GB">I find the Senate confirmation hearings for
Donald Trump’s cabinet interesting but a mainly a distraction. Far too many
friends and colleagues are investing themselves in blocking this nominee or
that. They are free to do so, of course, but it is something of a fool’s
errand. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB">Donald Trump has won the election, and the
Republican party controls:</span></div>
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</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">The Presidency</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">The Senate (52 seats)</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -18pt;">The House (241 seats)</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
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This means that no matter what, if the
Republican Party maintains voter discipline, it passes its candidates by simple
majority vote.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">This should hardly be controversial. The
American voters have spoken, according to the rules of the Electoral College
and voting tradition. There is a new government in Washington. This government
has every right to form a cabinet and begin the process of governing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">In a parliamentary system, this corresponds
to a vote of confidence upon announcing a cabinet. It happens all the time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">The Senate confirmation hearings are useful
in reviewing personal priorities or opinions or past history, but that is all
these can achieve. Yes, the current crop of nominated secretaries may be
controversial or repugnant to some. But they have every political right to take
office. That’s the result of an election, given the duopoly in the US political
system. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">A Parliamentary system with more than 2
parties might bring about a more serious confirmation process, but even this is
uncertain given the elected representatives we see in many countries. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Anyone expending their time and energy on
trying to block Betsy Devos or Jeff Sessions should understand this. A party
elected by majority has a mandate to govern, with the candidates it
selects.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">If these candidates happen to be dangerous
ideologues not fit to manage a corner store … well … that’s the reflection of
the Electoral College’s will. When you examine campaign finance and voting
records: is Congress any different?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If people are really that angry, it may be far better for them to invest time and energy in something tangible, like
organising for the 2018 mid-term elections. The confirmation hearings are a
theatrical diversion that offer nothing more than reinforcement bias. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">(c) Philip Ammerman, 2017 </span></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-39846171388048098372017-01-20T20:36:00.003+02:002017-02-11T12:53:09.741+02:00Inauguration Day<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I see a constant
stream of frustration, disgust and anger on Facebook and many other channels
tonight as President Donald J. Trump takes office. Certainly, there is much to
be disgusted about. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Let’s look beyond the
anger. The question is, as individuals, what can any one individual do in the
face of a system such as the one we find ourselves in? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Politics is disparate,
and something of an equilibrium. Donald Trump and the Republicans control
Congress for the next 2 years. If you are angry, mobilise now and win a
Democratic majority in Congress in 2018. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The next elections are
on Tuesday, November 6<sup>th</sup>, 2018. All 435 seats in the House of
Representatives are included, as are 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2018<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If you are angry at
Trump and his election, then one creative and positive outlet you have is to
organize now for November 2018. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But while you are
doing this, it’s important to reflect on a couple of things. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">First of all, don’t
define yourself solely by what you are against. Define yourself as well by
what you are for. You will find that this is more difficult, particularly when
you ask others to stand for the same things, and vote together. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So compromise is
essential in politics. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Second of all, reflect
that many of the voters who voted for Trump have a serious reason for doing so
(and I’m not referring to the lobbyists or billionaires seeking tax breaks or
public contracts). I’m referring to the middle class and the blue collar
families, who have really been left behind. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ironically, Hillary
Clinton’s policies would have been much more beneficial for most in this group.
Trump won because his supporters believed he would do a better job (and he won
the Electoral College math). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Whatever the case, the
United States faces drastic problems in terms of debt, falling tax revenue,
loss of economic competitiveness, monopoly situations in many sectors
(including start-ups), an abysmal national healthcare policy, an unbalanced
military policy, and many other problems. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">These are not going to
be easy problems to solve. At least not sustainably, or rationally. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So your first job is
probably to try to understand what the current situation is, what the root
causes are, and what the possible solutions are. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">These solutions are
going to cost money. Unless you are prepared to pay for them (or force
others to pay for them), they will be difficult to solve. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Finally, if I can
share one point from my personal experience: Back in 1999/2000, I was equally
horrified by the Florida vote recount and George W. Bush’s election. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Much of what I feared
from that time materialized. Most of this was due to an incredible ignorance
among the governing class, as well as the mendacity of those who support and
enable it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In 2017, this is now
infinitely worse. It is institutionalized. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My advice is: make
sure you are taking care of yourself. We are now in a very “risk-on” world. You
simply can’t take anything for granted. Do whatever is possible to survive and
evolve, especially financially. Protect your assets. Improve your
employability. Make sure you are as flexible, nimble and agile. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The issues we are
seeing now are only leading indicators of a far more serious and deleterious
situation, and one that is practically impossible to reverse. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">So, get ready. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-31614204736405228272016-11-05T11:52:00.002+02:002016-11-05T11:52:13.845+02:00Princeton establishes a Center for Scholars in Athens<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">Princeton University's tradition of deep commitment to the humanities has long been connected to Greece and Hellenic culture, from antiquity to the present. On Tuesday, Nov. 1, the University added a formal home base for Princeton scholars in Greece with the opening of the Princeton University Athens Center for Research and Hellenic Studies. Three years in the planning, the Center is led by the University's</span><span class="apple-converted-space" style="color: black; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://www.princeton.edu/hellenic/overview/" style="color: purple;"><span style="color: #bb5500;">Seeger Center for Hellenic Studies</span></a>.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">"An academic home in Greece embodies some of the key goals of the Stanley J. Seeger Hellenic Fund, established in 1979," said</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #444444; font-family: Arial;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><a href="https://www.princeton.edu/hellenic/people/executive_committee/GondicasCV2012.pdf" style="color: purple;"><span style="color: #bb5500;">Dimitri Gondicas</span></a>, founding director of the Seeger Center and a 1978 alumnus. "Creating the Princeton Athens Center was consistent with the vision of our benefactor, Stanley J. Seeger '52, whose legendary generosity made it possible for Princeton to be a world leader in Hellenic studies." Every year, the Seeger Center for Hellenic Studies supports more than 100 Princetonians for study and research in Greece, said Gondicas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">At an evening reception at the new Center, Gondicas opened his remarks in Greek: "Kalos orisate! Welcome! … Princeton has enjoyed strong, enduring links with the Hellenic world, and it has been an international leader in the study of Greek culture. As scholars, educators, philanthropists, public servants, business people, art collectors and writers, Princetonians have contributed immensely to the cultural and international relations between Greece and the United States."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber participated in the ribbon-cutting ceremony and greeted the 55 guests including faculty, students, friends, and more than 30 undergraduate and graduate alumni spanning more than 50 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">"This is the first time Princeton University has opened a research and scholarship center anywhere outside of the United States," said Eisgruber, Class of 1983. Acknowledging the "extraordinary generosity and vision" of Seeger's gifts and the gifts of many alumni attending the reception, Eisgruber said that one of the reasons the University chose to establish the center in Athens "as we become a more international university" is Princeton's "extraordinary humanistic tradition that finds its home here in Athens and in Greece."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">He said these alumni gifts ask the University "to build upon the study of ancient and modern Greece and to do so in a way that understands the broad influence of Greece in the world. As we seek to make this enterprise succeed ... we will depend on our connections here in Greece to make this a thriving hub of activity."</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">Read the <a href="http://www.princetonclubofgreece.com/2016/11/princeton-establishes-center-for.html" target="_blank">full article</a> at the Princeton Club of Greece website. </span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-72118597615358238072016-10-18T05:27:00.001+03:002016-10-18T05:27:24.393+03:00Princeton University recruiting an Assistant Professor in Modern Greek Language, Literature, and Culture<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC1NWdMb6TYLhOrVbr-1Hsd1a3qP_iFyolfheDBzLtbn58e8sqCNONfZSBlhNg_95hMFHuBFXPxPOTntFoSaSHeAbS2jUUS71FuqN-gIx42Cwl8RuNFL5sw8_G-CRCghLBSopcY1ed307u/s1600/PrincetonUniversityLogo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgC1NWdMb6TYLhOrVbr-1Hsd1a3qP_iFyolfheDBzLtbn58e8sqCNONfZSBlhNg_95hMFHuBFXPxPOTntFoSaSHeAbS2jUUS71FuqN-gIx42Cwl8RuNFL5sw8_G-CRCghLBSopcY1ed307u/s320/PrincetonUniversityLogo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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PRINCETON UNIVERSITY</div>
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Assistant Professor in Modern Greek Language, Literature, and Culture</div>
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<span data-mce-style=""><span data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" id="di_2" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Princeton University's Seeger Center for Hellenic Studies and the Department of Classics invite applications for a tenure-track position (assistant professor) in Modern Greek Language, Literature, and Culture, to begin September 1, 2017. The successful candidate will be appointed full-time in the Department of Classics, with "associated faculty" status in Hellenic Studies. <br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />We seek a dynamic and productive scholar of the literature and culture of modern Greece (15th century to the present) who is capable of innovative instruction at all levels, from introductory language courses to graduate seminars. The successful candidate will be able to communicate the importance of modern Greek literature to students and colleagues with interests across the humanities. <br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />PhD must be completed by start date. <br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Applications must include cover letter, curriculum vitae (including language proficiencies), teaching statement, and a sample of research (article or chapter of about 20 pages length). <br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Applicants should ask their referees to write by December 15, 2016, when the review of dossiers will begin. The position is open until filled. <br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><br data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" />Princeton University is an equal opportunity employer and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to age, race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law. This position is subject to the University's background check policy. </span> </span></div>
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<span data-mce-style="">Position information and Application: </span></div>
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<span data-mce-style=""><span data-mce-style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;" id="di_143" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a data-mce-href="http://jobs.princeton.edu/applicants/Central?quickFind=69279" href="http://jobs.princeton.edu/applicants/Central?quickFind=69279" style="color: blue; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">jobs.princeton.edu/applicants/Central?quickFind=69279</a> </span> </span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-57031700248255868182016-10-16T04:37:00.001+03:002016-10-16T05:44:22.384+03:00On Message and on the Money<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt;">Should anyone
still be wondering as to the importance of political fundraising and marketing
using an established party network and an established political brand, a <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-has-built-the-biggest-big-money-operation-ever-229831#ixzz4NCqo9FbS">recent
article in Politico by Shane Goldmacher</a> should put their doubts to rest. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">The
rush of money has provided Clinton a tremendous advantage as she vastly
outspends Trump in nearly every facet of the 2016 campaign: on TV, on radio, on
mail, on staff, on field operations. Clinton raised roughly $297 million for
her campaign and joint committees with the Democratic Party in August and September.
That is more in the last two months than the $262.3 million the Republican
National Committee touted on Friday that it had raised during the entire cycle.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">This
club has expanded to the point where Clinton would now struggle to fit all of
these bundlers into a single ballroom. As of the end of June, she counted 496
such individuals and couples. By the end of July, it was 871. On August 31, it
was 1,133.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">It
includes billionaires George Soros, Warren Buffett and Tom Steyer, super
lobbyists like Steve Elmendorf and bold-faced names like Calvin Klein and J.J.
Abrams. There is also a sprinkling of longtime Clinton family advisers, such as
Vernon Jordan.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">The
assemblage is already more than double the size of President George W. Bush’s
vaunted 2004 Pioneer and Ranger program for those who raised at least $100,000;
Bush had 548 Rangers and Pioneers. It also dwarfs Obama’s reelection
fundraising operation four years ago that had 602 individuals or couples in its
$100,000 club, and a total of 770 bundlers who raised at least $50,000.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Remarkably,
when Clinton releases a revised list in the coming week, her team of bundlers
could be larger than the Bush 2004 and Obama 2012 lists combined.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Another story on my radar screen this week was an <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/137798/important-wikileaks-revelation-isnt-hillary-clinton?utm_source=social&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=sharebtn">article
by David Dayen in The New Republic</a>, which references the Podesta email dump
on Wikileaks:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Michael
Froman, who is now U.S. trade representative but at the time was an executive
at Citigroup, <a href="https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/8190"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">wrote an email</span></a> to Podesta on October 6, 2008, with the subject
“Lists.” Froman used a Citigroup email address. He attached three documents: a
list of women for top administration jobs, a list of non-white candidates, and
a sample outline of 31 cabinet-level positions and who would fill them. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">The
cabinet list ended up being almost entirely on the money. It correctly
identified Eric Holder for the Justice Department, Janet Napolitano for
Homeland Security, Robert Gates for Defense, Rahm Emanuel for chief of staff,
Peter Orszag for the Office of Management and Budget, Arne Duncan for
Education, Eric Shinseki for Veterans Affairs, Kathleen Sebelius for Health and
Human Services, Melody Barnes for the Domestic Policy Council, and more. For
the Treasury, three possibilities were on the list: Robert Rubin, Larry
Summers, and Timothy Geithner.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">This
was October 6. The election was November 4. And yet Froman, an executive at
Citigroup, which would ultimately become the recipient of the largest bailout
from the federal government during the financial crisis, had mapped out
virtually the entire Obama cabinet, a month before votes were counted. And
according to the <a href="https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/6684"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">Froman/Podesta</span></a> <a href="https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/2690"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">emails</span></a>, lists were floating around even before that.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Reading these
two articles reveals exactly how the political system works in the United
States. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 120%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 120%; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Elections
cost money. Serious money. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 120%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 120%; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Governance
requires qualified people, and more importantly, trustworthy* people. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Put the two
together and you can understand exactly how the sausage is made today. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 15px;">I have four further observations to make: </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 15px;">1. After everything that has been published about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, no one can claim they did not know who they were voting for. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 15px;">2. It is perhaps the ultimate irony that the effect of Donald's boorish campaign and character has been to cast Hillary Clinton as a sympathetic person. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 15px;">3. It remains a tragedy that in a country as talented and open as the United States, we see that the political system has left voters with this choice. It is perhaps as bad as it gets, and there is <a href="http://www.philipatticus.com/2016/09/hillary-clinton-and-optics-of-decline.html" target="_blank">absolutely no indication that the system will improve in the future</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 15px;">4. In this respect, the United States is perhaps an early outlier, but it is not unique in any way. Political systems no longer appear ready to handle the <a href="http://www.philipatticus.com/2016/10/politics-and-desert-of-real.html" target="_blank">brutal challenges of today or tomorrow</a>. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">© Philip
Ammerman, 2016 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p><a href="http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/08/23/hillary-clinton-to-wrap-up-fundraising-swing-in-laguna-beach/" target="_blank">Photo courtesy of CBS and Getty</a></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="DE" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-has-built-the-biggest-big-money-operation-ever-229831#ixzz4NCtx1URS"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Clinton has built the biggest big-money operation
ever</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Shane Goldmacher. Politico.
15 October 2016 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="DE" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/137798/important-wikileaks-revelation-isnt-hillary-clinton?utm_source=social&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=sharebtn">The
Most Important WikiLeaks Revelation Isn’t About Hillary Clinton</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">David Dayen. The New
Republic. 14 October 2016<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">*I use the
term “trustworthy” deliberately. I did not say patriotic. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-61606474857802840452016-10-10T12:33:00.000+03:002016-10-10T12:33:04.453+03:00Politics and the Desert of the Real<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivcTWovDlLx4uIDiWO6NJUVOWwby-vXreCX5HnomXfYjSpNf00981IJLx-DyfdZYB9VNEPBKISxivew-dslelupgE05RjOH_6HYcq0K8KW7qjyaaWtD-XKFod0hJNVJbOLvXzNxgdNPndH/s1600/DonaldTrump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivcTWovDlLx4uIDiWO6NJUVOWwby-vXreCX5HnomXfYjSpNf00981IJLx-DyfdZYB9VNEPBKISxivew-dslelupgE05RjOH_6HYcq0K8KW7qjyaaWtD-XKFod0hJNVJbOLvXzNxgdNPndH/s640/DonaldTrump.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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I’m watching the aftermath of the second Trump – Clinton
debate. It is useless to focus on details this morning. Merely focusing on work
is already difficult. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Coming on the news of the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/social-democrats-face-challengers-in-lithuanias-election/2016/10/09/fd069de8-8df5-11e6-8cdc-4fbb1973b506_story.html">first
round of the Lithuanian election</a>, where the “Peasants and Greens” party won
the leading share of votes, or on the heels of the UK Conservative Party
conference last week, in which <a href="https://www.blogger.com/..:..:Applications:Microsoft%20Office%202011:Microsoft%20Word.app:Contents:Theresa%20May%25E2%2580%2599s%20government%20is%20facing%20a%20growing%20backlash%20over%20a%20proposal%20to%20force%20companies%20to%20disclose%20how%20many%20foreign%20workers%20they%20employ,%20with%20business%20leaders%20describing%20it%20as%20divisive%20and%20damaging.%20%20The%20proposal%20was%20revealed%20by%20Amber%20Rudd,%20the%20home%20secretary,%20at%20the%20Conservative%20party%20conference%20on%20Tuesday%20as%20a%20key%20plank%20of%20a%20government%20drive%20to%20reduce%20net%20migration%20and%20encourage%20businesses%20to%20hire%20British%20staff.">Home
Secretary Amber Rudd</a> stated that all UK companies will have to draw up lists of
foreign employees, there is only one conclusion we can draw: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">The greatest danger we face today is the abysmal
quality and ability of individual politicians, and of entire political parties and political
systems. <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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The greatest threat we face—whether “we” are a small
business in London or a university professor in Vilnius or a pensioner in
Sacramento—is bad governance. <o:p></o:p></div>
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That bad governance is, in itself, the product of a number
of factors, but at the root of it is bad political actors. As we have seen in
Greece, no political system can withstand the impact of corrupt political
actors. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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There is no longer a dominant national narrative, as there
was in World War II (Allies vs Axis) or in the Cold War (West vs East). Bereft
of an existentialist struggle, societies in the west have been free to collapse
into what I can only describe as national narcissism. <o:p></o:p></div>
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As societies, we no longer know what we stand for, or what
we stand against. <o:p></o:p></div>
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We cannot agree on what to pay for. Or how to pay for it.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We cannot agree on what standards to use to hold our elected
politicians to account. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Perhaps the only thing we can agree on is that everyone has
their own opinion. And on Facebook, everyone can say anything, even if it has
nothing to do with the truth. <o:p></o:p></div>
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As a result, Bill Clinton’s “triangulation” today isn’t
really a triangle: it is a multidimensional equation pandering to political
micro-segments in the hopes of getting out the vote on election day. <o:p></o:p></div>
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It is based on distorted and divisive identity politics
rather than any factual basis or systems analysis. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Technologically, using this “multidimensional triangulation”
is possible. But in terms of governance? How do you govern on this basis, when
it is impossible to get a majority to agree, let alone a quorum to agree? <o:p></o:p></div>
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If your entire system is based on divisive identity politics
that is based on the absurd, how do 1 + 1 = 2? They don’t. They can’t. <o:p></o:p></div>
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So let’s take this reasoning to the next step: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->We live in an “always on” world where
traditional broadcasters are declining and where most citizens interact far
more on Facebook than on traditional media. There are few facts on Facebook.
Only opinions. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Political “selling” has, in the second Donald
Trump – Hillary Clinton debate, reached new lows and established a new form of
social acceptability. (Whether it has established these or simply mirrors a
society where this is acceptable is open to debate).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Any political campaign in any part of the world
today requires money to run. Lots of money. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">d.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Rather than a simple binary framework of
choosing parties and platforms, every country is witnessing a total
fragmentation into political slivers and niche parties, which have already been
mentioned under the difficulty of triangulation. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">So what happens next? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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What I believe will happen next is a process of national
decline, similar to the decline of the Roman Republic, and later the Roman
Empire. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Consider the evidence: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The Senate in Rome (Republic) became a vehicle
for hereditary politics and special interests. Congress in the United States,
or the Greek Parliament, are becoming the same thing. How many members of
Congress in the United States (or in Greece) have we elected because of a
family name or a family dynasty in politics? <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->How many of us consider our elected
representatives are able to actually make decisions, as opposed to (a) convey
the decisions of special interests, or (b) “block reform”?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->How much does it cost to get elected today? How
much did it cost to get elected in Rome in 55 BC? How were campaigns financed,
then and now? <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Rome grew by leading its men out to war each
spring. When the Italian peninsula was conquered, Rome expanded to Sicily,
Carthage, Iberia, Gaul, Greece, Egypt … the entire civilized world. The process
of military expansion became a dynamic engine. Successful generals (tribunes,
consuls) came from the same patrician families that were already in the Senate
or the equites class. Look at the United States today. Does anyone doubt the militarisation
of foreign policy or large segments of the economy, when the largest element of
the federal budget is military expenditure? Does anyone believe that in 2016,
an American politician can choose not to “support” the military? <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->We are still looking for our man on a white
horse. The Roman Republic fell to Julius Caesar because Caesar was a patrician,
a successful general, and someone who “got things done”. We yearn for such
militaristic, masculine figures in the west. How much of Donald Trump’s image
is one of strength and competence, despite his many moral and business failures
in the past? His bankruptcies? His absurd sideline businesses, like “Trump
Steaks”? His three marriages? <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->One major reason Rome fell was because of debt.
This debt was focused on farmers and tradesmen, who literally became slaves or,
one step up, indentured serfs, tied to an economic and political master. It also
had high public debt: the costs of raising and operating an army was
prohibitive. It was politically impossible to tax the oligarchs (who were also
members of Senate). So the tax base kept shrinking. This high debt enabled the
patrician class to become even more dominant. Successive emperors then started
debasing the currency, removing trust in the fundamental means of exchange in
the empire’s economy. Together with the slave economy which was swelled by
Roman military conquest, a society formed in which a few oligarchs owned most
of the wealth and actual humans in Rome. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Now look at national debt and wealth inequality
in the United States. Does anyone doubt that there is a problem when the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/economic-inequality-it-s-far-worse-than-you-think/">top
20% of households in the United States own 84% of national wealth</a>? Does
anyone doubt that having total public debt well north of 140% of GDP is a
problem? Does anyone doubt that working at minimum wage is a form of wage
slavery? <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">What can we predict will happen? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Unless some form of miracle occurs (and I can’t see many
cases on the horizon), we can expect that: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Our societies are switching from an inclusive to
an exclusive basis. We now target foreigners or the “different” as a source of
blame. Expect demagoguery and xenophobia to increase. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Our citizens appear less able and less inclined
to analyse and to separate root cause from effect; cause from symptom. We are
also less willing to pay. Ideals are good for everyone. Ideals backed by tax
payments are bad. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Our politicians appear to have no sense of
prioritization or means-tested planning. Nearly every OECD country I know of
needs an urgent, economic turn-around plan to deal with declining
competitiveness, demographic change and national debt. I see almost no such
serious initiatives in place, or even the awareness that these are needed. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">d.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->A savings culture has been replaced by a consumption
culture. Consume now … for whatever reason. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">e.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->We seek authoritative competence, but we are
unwilling to pay for it even if we did elect it. The west is full of
politicians peddling the illusion of competence, all evidence to the contrary:
Marine Le Pen, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">f.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Others seek nostalgic competence. The election
of the “Party of Law and Justice” in Poland is a case in point. Appealing to
elder, conservative religious voters was at the heart of its electoral
strategy. The question remains whether critical legal and policy decisions can
be made in 2016 on the basis of such implied values. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">g.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->One unit of debt is rendering less and less
value. Conversely, the interest paid on debt will soon become the leading
budget line. And, absurdly, debt has never been more available. And
creditworthy companies and households are probably at their least available (at
least in standard credit rating terms). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I’m going to close this post with two observations. The
first is that: <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">The greatest danger we face today is the abysmal
quality and ability of individual politicians or entire political parties and political
systems. <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The second is that <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">There are very few ethical response options open
to individuals or companies within this system. <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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If you choose ethics, you knowingly put incompetent liars
(politicians) who are increasingly desperate for cash in charge of your
existence. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Remember: there are no penalties for electoral demagoguery
in modern politics. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And I will close with two questions that I have been
addressing since late 2009, which the Greek election took place that sparked my
interest in government, debt, competitiveness and politics that is the focus of
this blog. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">1. Has universal suffrage become a form of
collective social and economic suicide? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica;">2. What must an ethical actor do to ensure
financial and operational survival in the world we are becoming? <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Harsh questions, and I almost apologise for asking them. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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But I find myself asking these questions nearly every day. I
wonder if anyone has an answer.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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© Philip Ammerman, 2016 <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i>Donald Trump photo courtesy of <a href="http://az616578.vo.msecnd.net/files/2016/07/23/6360489455192162291563850737_Trump.jpg" target="_blank">Reddit</a></i></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-45716334980602437052016-10-01T13:30:00.000+03:002016-10-01T13:30:11.369+03:00Ben Hunt on Virtue Signalling, or why Hillary Clinton is in Trouble<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6lDcOGnSmv84asvRdGJQRB5i-3mSCUZR3H2AMDxEeM8WFwz64xtYz6MN0w2l2HtUZzSkRUcXx9AGscCMrf3dRCxRzjUpQ2fkolMXj-jJz-HLqL50HwatKDr1Jzt_D095f-ALohyn_uTXY/s1600/HillaryClinton.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6lDcOGnSmv84asvRdGJQRB5i-3mSCUZR3H2AMDxEeM8WFwz64xtYz6MN0w2l2HtUZzSkRUcXx9AGscCMrf3dRCxRzjUpQ2fkolMXj-jJz-HLqL50HwatKDr1Jzt_D095f-ALohyn_uTXY/s640/HillaryClinton.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Ben Hunt has <a href="http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon-theory/virtue-signaling-why-clinton-is-in-trouble/" target="_blank">another typically brilliant assessment of psychology, sociology and the US presidential campaign on Salient's Epsilon Theory blog</a>.<br />
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I can't recommend his writing enough. Every post is a revelation, often including some often unwelcome truths.<br />
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To avoid any doubt: I am 95% voting for Hillary on November 8th. Unless something dramatically changes, I can't see myself voting for Trump. But I do this with all the hesitation and awareness I have already posted on in this blog (some of it going back to 2007).<br />
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Hunt's "Clinton TM" paragraph (below) is just about exactly how I feel.<br />
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<i>What I DO see for Clinton is virtue signaling galore among her supporters, including her own campaign staff. It’s the fact checking fetish. It’s the TV ad spend in safe states. It’s the damned-with-faint-praise and passive-aggressive endorsements. It’s the passion reserved exclusively for “outrage” over Trump’s intentionally outrageous statements and utterly absent for anything Clinton says. It’s all designed to signal to your tribe that you’re a good person because you’re against Trump. It’s not completely uncorrelated with getting Clinton elected … it’s not counter-productive, per se … but it’s not very productive, either. </i></div>
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<i>Why not? <strong>Because this is a turn-out election.</strong> The winner of this election will be whoever can get more of their tribe to the polls in swing states: Colorado, North Carolina … maybe Nevada … maybe one or two others. Period. This is not an election that will be decided by influencing undecided or “lightly decided” voters one way or another, because all of these voters are staying home on November 8<sup>th</sup> anyway. It’s an election that will be decided by motivating your base. </i></div>
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<i>Can fear of Trump motivate? Sure it can. <strong>But if Brexit taught us anything, it’s the limitations of a fear-based campaign, at least when the fear-mongers are the same smarter-than-thou elites who tsk-tsk their deep and abiding concern for the benighted masses from Davos or Jackson Hole.</strong> Status quo candidates don’t win on fear alone. They’re not the anti-party. There has to be a reason … a why … an anthem for rallying the troops. And that’s what’s missing from the Clinton campaign, in exactly the same way it was missing for Teddy Kennedy in 1980 and Michael Dukakis in 1988.</i></div>
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<i>Look, I get it. The Democratic candidate isn’t Clinton, it’s Clinton™. Having chosen (or more accurately, anointed) a profoundly <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">hypocritical and opportunistic</span> pragmatic candidate, Democratic mouthpieces are now in the uncomfortable position of manufacturing enthusiasm rather than channeling enthusiasm. Enthusiasm is something you can easily fake when you’re winning big. But when the game gets tight … when it looks like (gulp!) the game might go the other way … well, that’s when thoughts of self-preservation and virtue signaling start to creep into the most adamant Democratic partisan. In fact, particularly the most adamant Democratic partisans. They WANT to believe. But Clinton™ is just so hard to sell out FOR.</i></div>
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<i>More importantly than what happens in any of these international games, however, is what happens in our domestic games. Blowing up our international trade and security games with Europe, Japan, and China for the sheer hell of it, turning them into full-blown Competition Games … that’s really stupid. But we have a nasty recession and maybe a nasty war. Maybe it would have happened anyway. We get over it. Blowing up our American political game with citizens, institutions, and identities for the sheer hell of it, turning it into a full-blown Competition Game … that’s a historic tragedy. We don’t get over that.</i></div>
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<i>But that’s exactly what’s happening. I look at Charlotte. I look at Dallas. I look at Milwaukee. And I no longer recognize us.</i></div>
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<i>I don’t think people realize the underlying fragility of the Constitution — the written rules to our American political game. It’s just a piece of paper. Its only strength in theory is our communal determination to infuse it with meaning through our embrace of not only its explicit rules, but also and more crucially its unwritten rules of small-l liberal values like tolerance, liberty, and equality under the law. <strong>Its only strength in practice is that whoever runs our Executive branch, whoever is our Commander-in-Chief, whoever is in charge of “law and order”, whoever runs our <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">massive spy bureaucracy</span> national intelligence service, whoever controls the legitimate use of deadly force and incarceration … that he or she believes in those unwritten rules of small-l liberal values like tolerance, liberty, and equality under the law</strong>. </i></div>
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<i>When you hear Trump talk about “loosening the law” on torture, or “loosening the law” on libel prosecutions of anyone who criticizes HIM, or the impossibility of a federal judge being able to rule fairly because his parents were born in Mexico … well, there’s no way he believes in those small-l liberal virtues. No way.</i></div>
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Hillary Clinton Photo courtesy of <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/candidates/hillary-clinton" target="_blank">CNN</a>. </div>
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Citation: Ben Hunt. <a href="http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilon-theory/virtue-signaling-why-clinton-is-in-trouble/" target="_blank">Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble</a>. Salient Partners. September 29, 2016.</div>
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(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016 </div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-8901472819195837402016-10-01T12:37:00.000+03:002016-10-01T12:37:19.535+03:00Reflections on Cyprus Independence Day<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">I watched a little bit of the military parade in
Nicosia today. I can't help wishing this day could be commemorated with
something more than shrill journalists from state-owned channels eulogising
young men in uniform, while old politicians in sharp suits and Rambo-style
shades applaud from the stage. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Of course we need military preparedness. But
independence today, no matter in what country we live in, is so much more than
this. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">So much more than the hollow slogans and fixations
with military equipment that is itself 2 generations old. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Where is the parade dedicated to economic
competitiveness or innovation? Where is the parade dedicated to cyberwarfare
and digital capabilities? To effective diplomacy and alliances? To an efficient
public sector? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">To honest and uncorrupted politicians, capable of
strategic governance? That would be an empty parade indeed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">I reflect that Cyprus has made tremendous efforts
in re-organising its civil defence and conscription system and is now in the
process of professionalising its military. This is laudable, although no doubt
more can be done. There are also few alternatives for this, given Cyprus'
geographic position, history, and neighbourhood, and the fact that 38% of
Cyprus is occupied by Turkey. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Yet, Cyprus has gone through 5 major economic
crashes in 15 years. All of these are attributable to a lack of effective
regulation, to political capture of regulatory institutions and banks, to
abysmal managerial decisions, and to a society prepared to believe the
impossible. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">None of these economic crashes is attributed to
military preparedness. Yet all of them have reduced Cyprus' independence
significantly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Independence today will be something secured by: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Effective and accountable
politicians. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">An independent and effective
public service, adapted to the digital age and the globalised world we are
living in, where a condition of ignorant stasis is fatal. This includes a
modern justice system. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">A consensus between political
parties and society on what is considered mandatory, and what can be open to
ideological interpretation. Ideally, issues like the national educational
system, justice, and military should be non-political and non-ideological.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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compete, rather than investing in flashy consumption. Particularly when the
latter is financed by expensive bank loans. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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historical memory, real analysis and the ability to resist demagoguery, rather
than one hypnotised by "proinathika", trashy serials, self-indulgence
and narcissism. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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balanced and coherent social compact between the young, the employed, the old
and the disadvantaged.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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public and private sector management. Probably the greatest weakness we
confront today. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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very rapid and mobile, independent reaction, using asymmetric technological
threats against a numerically-superior force with overwhelming conventional
superiority in the air and on the ground. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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shielded from digital and electro-magnetic warfare and unrestricted warfare. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">A very effective public
service, diplomatic corps, and media capabilities necessary to shift
international public opinion and decision-making. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">The ability to properly
leverage and benefit from international alliances, avoiding the paroxysms and
oxymoronic behaviour of all too many politicians today and yesterday. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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intelligence service. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">A culture of investing in
excellence, innovation and performance, at all levels. This is the only avenue
a small country has today to survive and compete in a brutally rational
economic age. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">The ability to attract
productive and innovative investment (domestic or foreign) and maintain a
positive current account balance, as well as a balanced GDP and public sector
budget. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><b><u>I want to believe.</u></b></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Image of Fox Mulder courtesy of <a href="http://www.thetvaddict.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/the-x-files.jpg" target="_blank">The TV Addict</a>.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: JA;">(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016 </span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-79690835944418323952016-09-15T23:23:00.002+03:002016-09-15T23:34:30.093+03:00My Top 5 plus 1 Picks for US President<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh62nyyq9Sb0Sps6OLUTn8SdKPIu8D3OQp7W1vxZ7piUPXJjYClW5bDLNM2iqlVtv0M8YAdspML18PclUWwfevucQYasa8WDhnmaJm8WBSRIEPV0kSk1mWMLw7N5biUhQMxB_1VLq0cmj5R/s1600/JeffreyImmelt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh62nyyq9Sb0Sps6OLUTn8SdKPIu8D3OQp7W1vxZ7piUPXJjYClW5bDLNM2iqlVtv0M8YAdspML18PclUWwfevucQYasa8WDhnmaJm8WBSRIEPV0kSk1mWMLw7N5biUhQMxB_1VLq0cmj5R/s640/JeffreyImmelt.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Jeffrey Immelt. Photo (c) Eric Piermont / AFP / Getty Images, courtesy of the <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/ges-oil-and-gas-gambit-questioned-1418688144" target="_blank">Wall Street Journal</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Like almost everyone I know, I find it impossible to be
inspired or confident by the choice of Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump as
presidential nominees this year. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Rather than dwell on these two candidates (as I have in many
other posts), I’d rather start with a clean slate and brainstorm who I would be
willing to vote for. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">What am I looking for
in a President? </span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->At least 30 years of clear-headed experience and
achievement, ideally spanning both the private and public sectors;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->A rational, post-ideological, non-partisan
approach towards governance;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The ability to analyse root causes and effects,
and frame complex issues into a manageable structure;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Someone combining systems thinking with real
leadership in the real world, not an ivory tower or an ideological wet dream (I’m
thinking of you here, Ted Cruz);<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The ability to delegate and manage teams in a
complex operating environment;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The ability to make hard decisions; <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Health and stamina: Able to work long hours
under pressure; <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->A strong sense of personal ethics;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Ideally, a self-made man or woman, rather than
someone of inherited wealth;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->A commitment to serving the greater good while
(a) upholding the Constitution and laws of the United States, and (b) ensuring
that minority interests are protected;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The ability to work across party lines;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->An internationalist agenda; a willingness to
work with international organisations and allies in a meaningful and realistic
manner;<o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->A skepticism of easy slogans and sound bytes; an
understanding that there are no easy solutions (or at least, few that are
sustainable), and that complex solutions demand hard work, good planning and real
sacrifice; <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Knowledge of at least one foreign language and
some international experience;<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Capability to set objectives and monitor
results; <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->A strong knowledge of history (and reality). <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">Top 5 Picks</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So here is my pick, in order of preference. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">1. Jeffrey Immelt</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
CEO of General Electric. If there is one person who knows
how the American and global economy works across all sectors, including
manufacturing, finance and services, it’s Jeff Immelt. Incredible line
experience in the private sector. Incredible project management skills.
Experience in managing teams in the most complex operating environments
possible. By far the strongest, multi-sectoral international experience of any
candidate: GE is working in over 170 countries. Critically aware of the need
for innovation and competitiveness, including the need to develop and retain
brilliant scientists, investors, and salespeople. Vast finance experience. Vast
experience in complex turn-around management in complex competitive situations,
which is exactly what America needs right now. Vast operational experience in
value curve migration and new technology integration. He is more humble than
his predecessor, “Neutron Jack” Welch. Although there has been a lot of
turbulence at GE, this reflects the changing economy and multiple business cycles rather than poor
leadership. The only negative point is that he has no public sector experience
in the United States. But he certainly knows how government works, at all
levels (Federal, State, Local). And he has worked with public sector officials
of both parties for over 30 years now. I would vote for Immelt immediately and
unreservedly, assuming he follows a centrist platform.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">2. Michael Bloomberg </span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Former Mayor of New York City; founder of Bloomberg LLC. A
real innovator; a very accomplished track record in New York City. A strong mix
of private and public sector experience, although the latter is at the
municipal, not the national level. Then again, it’s New York City. Hard to
think of a more difficult global city to manage in the United States today. An
internationalist and realist. A financial engineer who can hopefully find ways
to deal with America’s burgeoning public debt. I would vote for Bloomberg
immediately and unreservedly. I’d love to see him remodeling the Oval Office
into a bullpen. Or just relocating where he does business. The only reason he’s
second on this list is his age. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">3. John Kerry </span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Decorated war veteran. Senator from Massachussets. Secretary
of State. One of the most level-headed public servants America has, even if he
can’t always express himself quite so well. This is someone who has literally
bled for America. He knows how the system works at the state and federal level.
An added bonus is his international background. One issue against him is his
lack of financial / economics experience. A second issue is whether he can say
no at the right time. He ran against George W. Bush in 2004 and lost, but
continued in public service. He would be a safe pair of hands, but would need
strong backstopping at Treasury and Commerce, and should not be beholden to
Democratic party interests.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">4. Colin Powell </span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Soldier, working his way up to 4* General and Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Secretary of State in the George W. Bush
administration. His greatest failure is his acceptance of the Iraqi WMD
fiction. I believe he was bamboozled, and I believe he will not make the same
mistake twice. An inspirational figure: a minority who has pulled himself up by
his bootstraps to the highest offices in America by virtue of service. Only two
issues against him: (a) lack of financial and economics sector experience, and
(b) possibly not willing to rock the boat too much. Other than these points,
this is a vastly superior candidate to anyone currently in the race. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">5. Bill Gates</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Founder of Microsoft, co-founder of the Bill & Melinda
Gates Foundation. After co-writing the operating system that everyone loves to
hate, Bill Gates has spent 20 years donating his fortune to doing very
beneficial policy- and science-based public service through his Foundation. My
one worry is that he has no line management experience in the public sector,
and would probably find this exasperating. He would also probably have
difficulty running a campaign and relating to at least 50% of voters. But it’s
difficult to think of a more intelligent systems thinker and futurist with a
real track record of significant scale. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">No Female Candidates</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
My one regret here is that I haven’t been able to identify
any female candidates for President with equivalent seniority, ethics and
experience. Anne-Marie Slaughter would be a strong choice, but she does not
have the seniority and breadth of experience that the others on this list do.
Carly Fiorina and Meg Ryan turned out to be less than stellar. Probably, I
don’t know enough others. Any suggestions in this area would be very welcome.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">Plus one Wild Card</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">Bruce Springsteen</span><o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I know. You’re probably thinking WTF!? But think about it.
He’s 66 years old, and he still plays 4 hour live gigs on tour. He probably
knows more about the working class and the average American than anyone else on
this list. He’s pulled himself up by his bootstraps and has been composing and
singing inspiring music for nearly 50 years now. He’s authentic. He’s
artistically and financially successful. He’s been in every single US state and
all over the world. We wouldn't have to live through any more navy blue suits and
red ties and teleprompters. Sure, he has no public sector experience. He would
need a really strong executive team to get him through the complex stuff. But
he has great instincts and ethics. This is probably one guy you could trust not
to lie to you on the campaign trail, or anywhere else. The only downside of
electing him is that the E-Street Band would have to stop playing. If you gave
me the choice of The Boss on November 8<sup>th</sup>, I would vote for him over
Hillary or Donald immediately. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p> See you on November 8th. </o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p>(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016</o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-55046292172492978182016-09-12T11:14:00.000+03:002016-09-12T11:14:14.356+03:00Hillary Clinton and the Optics of Decline<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi3y1Jbd5f0Aar13z8o7aOTM6zVMBm-Sr-oMl7zWbIo2bwJGEk1-Um6qZt1qI60MZ2MqpFwdQGZDAAb9qmJ2RjRrdC1Upzz2s_owAxXy3VeUwBnsA81AHE-_X7pMe0hAt6qVVFxKXlYLmj/s1600/HillaryClintonPolitico.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi3y1Jbd5f0Aar13z8o7aOTM6zVMBm-Sr-oMl7zWbIo2bwJGEk1-Um6qZt1qI60MZ2MqpFwdQGZDAAb9qmJ2RjRrdC1Upzz2s_owAxXy3VeUwBnsA81AHE-_X7pMe0hAt6qVVFxKXlYLmj/s640/HillaryClintonPolitico.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Hillary Clinton. <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/hillary-clinton-2016-whats-wrong-with-hillary-213722" target="_blank">Photo (c) Politico, AP Images</a></td></tr>
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In terms of optics, the past few days have signaled a
downturn for Hillary Clinton’s campaign. This downturn reflects many of the
symptoms of the political class. And unfortunately, it signals yet another
reason why the United States faces incredible challenges in the near future. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Clinton’s Basket of
Deplorables<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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At a campaign fundraiser on Friday, 9 September, she <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/09/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-basket-of-deplorables/">made
the following comment</a> (quote from CNN): <o:p></o:p></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">"To just be grossly generalistic, you can put
half of Trump supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables,"
Clinton said. "Right? Racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic,
Islamaphobic, you name it."<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE;">She added: "And unfortunately, there are
people like that and he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their
websites that used to only have 11,000 people, now have 11 million. He tweets
and retweets offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric."</span><o:p></o:p></i></div>
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However true this may be (or appear to be), it is an
unfortunate thing to say. Right up there with <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/29/mitt-romney-47_n_3670600.html">Mitt
Romny’s 47% comment</a>. Also made at a fundraising speech.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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It is important to remember that Trump and his surrogates
have been encouraging supporters to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/republicans-debate-kill-hillary-or-merely-jail-her/2016/07/20/5fb65424-4ec7-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html?utm_term=.2ca16cb69cb1">“lock
her up” and, in some cases, to execute her</a>. I haven’t seen an equivalent
apology from Donald Trump about this, even though the chants take place at his
rallies, at his prompting. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The next event came yesterday, at a 9/11 memorial service.
Attempting to enter her van, she <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/11/politics/hillary-clinton-health/">appeared
to stumble and fall</a>. This will lend further credence to <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/rudy-giuliani-hillary-clinton-mental-illness_us_57b9cceae4b00d9c3a182b33">Republican
attacks on her that she has an undiagnosed illness and is not fit for office.</a>
<o:p></o:p></div>
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The last thing a presidential candidate should do is appear
weak. The second-to-last-thing a candidate should to is insult the voters of
the other side. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Yet this is what is happening on a daily basis in this electoral
campaign. It frames the terms of the debate. It establishes perception, which
may be far removed from any facts. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Elections are
Perception. They Distort Reality. Then they Define It.<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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Events like this begin to frame a larger narrative. It’s
clear that the political class in most western countries today has several
common features: <o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Elections are fought on perception, not fact;<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Average voters appear to suspend any form of
critical thinking or historical memory, and accept political lies; <o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->The political class apparently feels empowered
to say one thing in smaller, campaign fundraising events, and another thing in
public; <o:p></o:p></div>
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</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->I have yet to see any politician or political
party offer a comprehensive policy analysis and means-tested solution to the
very real problems of flagging productivity, declining competitiveness,
demographic decline, fiscal distortion and other critical issues. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Unfortunately, this trend has now spread to the largest
economy in the world (in real terms). It has long been there, but the
Trump-Clinton election marks a watershed of political failure that will define
the new normal for generations to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">United States
Exceptionalism<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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The United States is, once again, an exception. But not in a
positive way. In many respects, it appears to be a frontrunner of political and
economic decline among developed nations. It is not unique in this. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The public debt situation in the United States is
deliberately concealed, with Federal debt reported, with very real and tangible
debts of key governmental organisations (Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac), state and
local government and mandatory unfunded liabilities (Medicare, Medicaid, Social
Security) on the books, but not reported in a consolidated format. This is a
widely-known and accepted fiction, which cannot continue without high and
unsustainable costs. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Federal spending is only being kept low through artificially
low interest rates (ZIRP), which reduce interest expenditure, and through
non-consolidation of total public debt. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm">In fiscal
year 2015, the US Federal government spent $ 402 billion in interest. In FY
2016, October – August, it has already spent $ 413 billion</a>. <o:p></o:p></div>
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This high interest expenditure takes place in an era of low
interest rates, with <a href="https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/rates/pd/avg/2016/2016_08.htm">FY
2016 year-to-date effective interest rates at 2.237% (in August 2016), lower
than the 2.337% YTD figure from 2015</a>. <o:p></o:p></div>
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If anyone is still wondering why the Fed is delaying raising
interest rates, this is probably the answer. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Federal budgeting is a disaster, with <a href="http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/accounting-fraud-is-business-as-usual-at-the-pentagon/">billions
of dollars in expenditure unaccounted for</a>, and trillions recorded by
accounting stopgaps. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://inequality.org/income-inequality/">Economic inequality
is now at historic levels</a>. 90% of US households earned $ 33,068 or less per
year in 2014. Most working families on minimum wage (or even 50-75% above
minimum wage) are essentially wage slaves, unable to meet basic demands. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The Affordable Healthcare Act has <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/obamacare-prescription-drugs-pharma-225444">removed
any semblance of price discipline on suppliers through collective bargaining</a>—due
mainly to Republican and Democratic resistance to a single payer system. US
basic healthcare remains among the most expensive in the world, for some of the
poorest health outcomes on record. The very fiscal prudence that Republicans
espouse for the private sector is ignored in the public sector, mainly due to lobbying.
The pernicious effects of this are all too obvious. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The US is possibly the only country where key law
enforcement (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheriffs_in_the_United_States">sheriffs</a>)
and justice officials (<a href="http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21613276-theyre-not-politicians-so-they-shouldnt-act-them-trouble-electing-judges">judges</a>)
are elected this widely. Where they must collect campaign contributions to win
an election. And where they must then sit in a regulatory or enforcement
position on the very people who paid to elect them. <o:p></o:p></div>
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US GDP and employment figures are distorted (favourably) by
2-3 key sectors. These distortions extend into tax revenue and policy. A
further distortion is seen in the role of the US dollar as a global currency,
and in US Treasuries as a reserve of value. <o:p></o:p></div>
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US political campaign finance is a <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/04/legalized-corruption-and-the-twilight-of-campaign-finance-law/360051/">recipe
for undue influence and corruption</a>. This is possibly the one area that
Republicans and Democrats agree on. Yet this is the one area where <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/">neither side can afford to yield
in what amounts to a financial arms race</a>. <o:p></o:p></div>
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There is a general political inability to craft sustainable
and rational policy responses to key sectors such as public finance, the
overall financial sector, electoral reform (at state and federal levels), justice,
gun control and registration, healthcare spending, education, manufacturing and
trade policy, and immigration. In the absence of meaningful reform, costs rise
and competitiveness declines. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Informed observers must look beyond the latest scandalous
comment made by Trump or Clinton, to the abject politicization of elected
officials and electoral systems from the local level all the way up to the
Presidency. <o:p></o:p></div>
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They must look beyond the latest unicorn listing or the next
$ 500 billion enterprise valuation to the <a href="http://www.inc.com/bill-carmody/why-96-of-businesses-fail-within-10-years.html">vast
number of companies that fail in the United States every year</a>. Not just in
the tech sector—in every sector. <o:p></o:p></div>
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The United States has some of the most unique strengths and
advantages in the world. It has made incredible contributions in every sector.
It is the oldest functioning, continuous democracy and remains a country where
innovation and entrepreneurship thrive despite increasingly expensive mandatory
costs and distortions: primarily healthcare and legal. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Unfortunately, none of these positive attributes appear to
be reflected in the political system. And politics is, arguably, destroying
them. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I am hoping, perhaps against all hope, that the political
system will miraculously find a way to stop the decline. But I see few
indications of this, and certainly none that are ticking away as fast as the consolidated
debt clock. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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As mentioned at the start: the US is a frontrunner, but it
is not unique. The same trends are clear in nearly every other industrialised
democracy in the world today. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The question is not why the metaphorical train wreck will
happen. The question is when. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
© Philip Ammerman, 2016 <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-14706607608456146692016-08-18T13:49:00.002+03:002016-08-18T13:50:31.337+03:00Empty Seas in China <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">I know that among so many other issues, natural resource utilisation tends
to be overlooked. We don't lack products on supermarket shelves, after all. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">But the world's population reached 7.4 billion in March (according to the
United Nations), and is on track to reach 11.2 billion by 2100. This means that
certain basic issues like food supply will become critical in the developed
world, let alone the developing world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Adam Minter has a terrifying <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-17/it-s-up-to-china-to-save-asia-s-oceans" target="_blank">article in Bloomberg on overfishing in China</a>,
and its political and resource implications. It's a textbook case of
over-utilisation, aggravated by a seemingly "rational" economic
policy (fisheries support) taken to irrational lengths through price and
subsidy distortions. It also includes a very explicit link to nationalism and
territorial ambitions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">The EU and US have been struggling with this issue for generations, but
neither has the population or development pressure that China has. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Back in 1990, we were studying the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands
as a textbook case of mining and politics in Geology class. Back then, the
Berlin wall had just fallen and apartheid was still in place. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">This month, I'm reading that Vietnam is moving Israeli-made rocket
artillery to concealed positions in the Spratlys, that Japan is re-arming and
that the Philippines is negotiating new base agreements. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">I wonder how far our enlightened but geriatric continent is prepared for
new major power conflicts, either in Asia, or on our own borders. Certainly, we
ignored Syria as long as we could, until it bit us in the ass. Then as soon as
the refugee inflow slowed, we ignored it some more. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">And I wonder if just a fraction of the time we spend on ephemera like
Pokemon Go or how many medals "we won" in Rio were not better
invested preparing for more serious, even existential, challenges.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p>(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016 </o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p>Sources:</o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-17/it-s-up-to-china-to-save-asia-s-oceans</span><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-63073467030897670592016-07-23T02:03:00.000+03:002016-07-23T02:03:48.955+03:00The Clintons' For Profit Partnership<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Gary Silverman wrote an excellent article in Financial Times on Bill and Hillary Clinton and their relationship with the for-profit education sector: "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/83878190-4b64-11e6-88c5-db83e98a590a.html#axzz4FB4cmArT" target="_blank">The For-Profit Partnership</a>". (Gary Silverman, 21 July 2016). Donald Trump is not the only Presidential candidate with a very hazy business background. <br />
It is difficult for me to understand how, with so much real talent in the United States, we are stuck with these two candidates. This FT article reminds me not only of the revolving door between politics and the private sector, and how influence is peddled and decisions made, but of the simple fact that the political system is broken. <br />
I don't know a single talented and self-aware person today that wants a career in politics. At least among my network, most of us look on politicians as incompetent liars and corrupt idiots, if not rank buffoons. <br />
A brave few of us have gotten involved in politics, and I admire them for it. But they have gotten nearly nowhere, reaping only despair for their efforts. <br />
The characteristics necessary for success in politics are almost the opposite of success everywhere else: <br />
- A politician can lie and slander with impunity: there is no law against it. We almost expect our politicians to be liars. <br />
- A politician can tear down his opponents and criticise everything, without offering any substantial, budgeted solutions. Only sound bytes. <br />
- A politician very often advances in a political party by outlasting rivals. There is almost no tangible success metric in beyond longevity.<br />
- Membership in political parties has fallen to such a low level, that the "democratic deficit" exists not only in Brussels, but in nearly every national capitol. Theresa May's elevation to Prime Minister of the United Kingdom took place by the vote of 150,000 registered Conservative voters. The UK has a population of 64.1 million. <br />
- A key competence of politicians is fundraising, which comes with strings attached. So a politician can raise funds to pay for his/her own career, with the costs borne by the taxpayers and society he/she claims to represent. I can't think of a similar system in any other "real economy" sector, except perhaps Greek and Cypriot public sector unions. <br />
In Greece and Cyprus, it's all about longevity. We have gone beyond first-generation politicians and are now on the third and fourth generation. Politics has become a family business, with massive personal enrichment and entitlement along the way. <br />
Coming back to the Clinton-Trump race. The great tragedy of our time is that "rational" candidates must back one candidate with a deeply compromised past, while "angry" candidates must back another candidate with an equally deeply compromised past. We are asked, like no other time I can remember, to choose the lesser of two evils, but a magnitude of evil which is frankly unpalatable and unacceptable. <br />
I know who I will vote for. But I don't do this out of any sense of hope or allegiance. Merely out of a vague desire that my choice will do less damage that the other. I have no epistemological basis for believing this. <br />
When I reflect that the United States has some of the greatest companies, universities, entrepreneurs, inventors, athletes, singers, writers, artists and museums in the world, it really makes my heart break. <br />
At this stage, I would rather vote for Bruce Springsteen or Bill Gates or Jon Stewart for President, as unqualified or inexperienced as they may be. But obviously I will never be given that chance. <br />
This is what it has come down to. Two very bad choices. One marginally less bad than the other, although this remains to be proven. A broken political system where rank corruption and gridlock have become normal. <br />
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For those of you without FT access, I leave a few choice quotes from the article.<br />
______________________ <br />
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<i>For the Clintons, the Laureate connection has been a profitable step in one of the most lucrative post-presidential business careers in US history. After leaving the White House in 2001 in self-described penury, Mr and Mrs Clinton made close to a quarter of a billion dollars, largely by giving speeches, publishing books and consulting. </i><br />
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</i><i>The Clintons, by contrast, have profited financially by using their connections to the global elite — including in such highly regulated sectors as for-profit education, finance and healthcare. Big banks such as Goldman Sachs and UBS, which have together paid almost $2m for speeches from the Clintons since 2013, are the obvious example. “</i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>In the realm of appearance, it’s just unnecessary,” says Robert Reich, who served as Mr Clinton’s labour secretary from 1993 to 1997. “It would be one thing if they were financially needy. But from all the accounts I have read that doesn’t seem to be the case. So why take the risk of the appearance of impropriety? Why give ammunition to the vast networks of people looking for ammunition? It’s a complete mystery to me.” </i><br />
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<i>The Clintons’ income from for-profit education could prove an especially sensitive subject at a time when US student debt exceeds $1.2tn. Critics argue that for-profit operators devote too much revenue to marketing and providing themselves with a return, and too little to teaching. Their case is made stronger by evidence that students at for-profit schools are less likely to pay back their loans or find jobs. </i><br />
<i><br /></i><i>Tax returns released by Mrs Clinton’s campaign show that she and her husband reported income of more than $22m from interests in the for-profit education industry since 2010.</i> <br />
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/83878190-4b64-11e6-88c5-db83e98a590a.html#axzz4FB4cmArT <br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-88189428291287605702016-07-19T15:32:00.002+03:002016-07-19T15:55:53.372+03:00CNN: Certainly Not News<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span data-offset-key="93ruk-0-0">In my formative years (read, before 30), I used to watch a lot of CNN. The familiar drone of CNN used to be a familiar connection in the Godforesaken post-Soviet industrial cities I would be stuck in. Trying to get an internet connection in Dnepropetrovsk in 1999 was, well, hopeful. </span><br />
As I grew older, and as CNN competed for ratings, it become really insipid. My own label for it was "CNN = Certainly Not News". About 16 years ago, around the time of the first G.W. Bush administration, it became so bland and biased that I simply tuned out.<br />
This week I am using the CP as a workspace, and CNN is on the flat screen TV and is inescapable. It hasn't changed at all. They have spent about 90 minutes of the past 2 hours blaring on about Melania Trump's plagiarised speech at the Republican convention, but have said nothing of exactly just how dangerous Donald Trump is as a candidate in terms of policy. Nor have they really analysed why both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have absolutely terrible histories and why they are deeply flawed candidates.<br />
They have shown Rudy Giuliani looking like a scary grandad foaming at the mouth, but have said nothing about his own brittle relationship with the truth. Ironically, Rudy has been criticising Hillary (about Benghazi), but there has been no equivalent analysis of his own policy failings, and his own attempt to cash in on the post-911 national security binge.<br />
There has been zero policy analysis for either the Democratic or the Republican platforms. Other reporting is almost laughable. There is nothing about Nice or the coup in Turkey. There is nothing about Brexit. There is something about WADA and Putin (who cares?). There is a bus fire in Taiwan and a rape in India. There is no economic analysis at all. Remember, this is over a 2-hour period.<br />
The "mainstream media" really stinks. It is a de-contextualised, celebrity-driven, fact-free medium that probably does more damage to really understanding "the news" than anything else.<br />
It is an exercise in perception creation and perception management that owes as much to self-censorship and the advertising-driven business model as to any real attempt to report. Sad really. </div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-8784562707376893092016-06-25T13:26:00.001+03:002016-06-25T13:26:51.217+03:00The Apparent and Overstated Death of Europe<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: white;">Much has been written about #Brexit and the impending “death of Europe” over the past few days, and much more will be written in the future. A bit of perspective is in order.</span></div>
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The European Union started as a nascent common market for coal and steel, and has since evolved into a supranational organisation with extensive competency in some areas and limited competency in others.</div>
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The original concept of being a free trade area has evolved. This initially applied to products. It then expanded to the “four freedoms”: freedom of movement of goods, people, services and capital.</div>
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Along the way, it was found that in order to achieve these four freedoms, there needed to be unified standards in a number of areas. This rapidly expanded into areas such as innovation, science and technology, research, education, and justice.</div>
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It deserves mention that the decision-making behind this standard-setting was voluntary. Member States are represented at several levels in the European Union. The first is the European Council, which is composed of heads of state, and its subsidiary councils, such as the European Economic and Financial Council, composed of Economics and Finance Ministers.</div>
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The second main level is the European Parliament, which today has more extensive powers over key areas of legislation.</div>
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Member States have also had several opt-out clauses and possibilities, such as Britain’s decision to opt-out of Schengen.</div>
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Why was the EU so Attractive?</h2>
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There are several points why the EU was very attractive to Member States and to European citizens which have been totally overlooked in the recent Brexit debates.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Institutionalising Democratic Legitimacy and Good Governance</em></strong></div>
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For weaker democracies, such as Spain, Portugal or Greece in the 1980s, or for the Central and Eastern European states that joined from 2004 and later, the European Union was seen as institutionalising democracy and good governance.</div>
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By joining the European Union, these countries felt that rather than entrusting their governance to a handful of corrupt politicians and political parties, they would benefit from wider European governance. For the most part, this has been true, particularly at that stage of development of each country applying to join. The European Union system has, whatever its many failings, acted as a brake on some of the more insalubrious tendencies of autocrats and oligarchs.</div>
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Could more have been done? Absolutely. But we should not forget that in each case, national stakeholders and voters have the primary role in the composition of their own political parties and governments, and in the operation of their own economies.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Greater Security</em></strong></div>
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Another strong value of joining the European Union was the perceived benefit of external security. This was very strongly felt in countries like Greece or Cyprus, which have been confronted by Turkish aggression, or in the Baltics, which were confronted by Russian aggression.</div>
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Remember that this is a perceived benefit. Will the European Union come to the military aid of Cyprus if it is invaded by Turkey again? Doubtful. But at the same time, it is inconceivable that the same conditions of ethnic or communal violence that preceded the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 could re-occur in an EU Member State.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">International Markets</em></strong></div>
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A main attraction for employers and companies has been the opportunity to benefit from integrated international markets. Whatever its other failings, the EU has made tremendous progress in unifying the European market.</div>
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There are still many issues to confront, including market fragmentation due to languages and a complex national tax system, but the situation today compared with that in 1986 or 1996 is objectively far better.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">International Employment and Residence</em></strong></div>
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A similar attraction is the opportunities for international employment and residence open to EU citizens. It is this flexibility which enables me, an EU citizen, to be able to choose 28 countries from which to live and work in, or to travel to without a visa. The situation today is incomparably better.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">International Education</em></strong></div>
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A similar attraction is seen in the area of education. An EU citizen today can choose any university from 28 Member States and, if s/he is admitted, is treated in the same way as the native of that Member State. For those of us who studied in the 1980s and 1990s, the situation today is simply far better. British universities have been among the major beneficiaries of this system.</div>
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European Union Criticisms</h2>
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Have there been downsides? Yes, absolutely. My main criticisms of the European Union are:</div>
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In order to further the Single Market (which is evolving into a single political space), a “one-size-fits-all” policy is being implemented on countries and sectors for which this policy is no longer suited. A good example is the Euro. The Euro will have a deleterious effect on several Member States, precisely because they are either not sufficiently competitive, or because of entrenched advantages (economies of scale), or because they find themselves at a different stage in the economic cycle.</div>
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As a free trade zone, the European economy has been liberalised, and this magnifies and multiplies the benefits open to competitive players while exacerbating the downsides felt by less competitive players. This is seen both between the EU Member States (for instance in wage competitiveness and manufacturing offshoring within the EU) as well as externally (for instance, in WTO access for China). Not enough has been done to assure competitiveness, although here too, the primacy is that of the Member States, not the European Commission. The Commission has been preaching the gospel of competitiveness and innovation since at least 1996, but most governments and political parties have not been listening.</div>
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In terms of the management of public funding, and particularly grants and subsidies, there is now overwhelming evidence that European Union funding has become a vector of corruption in some Member States. There is also overwhelming evidence that the Commission is not auditing enough projects, and does not have a sufficient audit procedure or resources to do this properly. Again, responsibilities here are divided: many Member States have blocked efforts to improve audit performance, precisely because of the nexus between political contributions and bribery for EU-funded public works.</div>
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In terms of overall budgetary priorities, the EU has invested in certain constructs such as the Common Agricultural Policy, which dramatically skew and distort domestic markets and EU operations. It is unreasonable, for instance, that agriculture, which accounts for less than 5% of EU GDP, absorbs over 40% of the EU budget each year. Again, the role of the Member States in determining these budgets and allocations is decisive.</div>
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The Level Playing Field means Higher Competition</h2>
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I have been involved in the overall European project since 1992. In September of that year, I started working as an intern / researcher at Kienbaum und Partner, a German consultancy specialising in public sector restructuring. My first project was organisational restructuring and merger of the police forces of the German State of North Rhine-Westfalia. This was followed by a feasibility study to bring the UNDP and UNFPA headquarters units from New York City to Bonn, Germany. Then by a project to support the post-privatisation competitiveness of a Czech food producer. Then a project to restructure the Cyprus Tourism Organisation.</div>
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Later on, I helped restructure heavily-indebted manufacturers in the Slovak Republic; advised the Association of Cyprus Travel Agents on the impact of EU Entry; set up management structures for EU funding in Cyprus; and worked on a range of other EU-funded or related projects.</div>
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In this time, I have come to a single conclusion: The European Union is simply a legal and operating platform. As an institution dedicated towards achieving a common market and a common legal space, the EU is providing a level playing field. In some areas, it has been successful. In others, it has failed.</div>
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This level playing field amplifies the normal competitive effects in any economy or market. For instance, if Germany cars can be imported into France at zero tariff, and French consumers for whatever reason prefer German cars, then French car manufacturers have a problem.</div>
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Similarly, if Germany can export cars to Greece, and the Greek government can no longer levy a tariff on the import, then the Greek government is deprived of a revenue source and must find another.</div>
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The danger encountered for individuals, companies, or governments is when they abandon basic financial common sense and an understanding of competitiveness.</div>
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The EU is not there to pay your bills. The EU will not provide you with an education or a job. It will not protect your borders. It will not attract investors.</div>
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The EU simply provides the rules of engagement and access.</div>
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What is amazing is just how much electorates and elected leaders have lost sight of this very simple truth.</div>
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Today we compete on a global playing field. We face massive price and technological competition from China and other Asian competitors. We face massive innovation competition from the United States in software / services, and from Latin America in agricultural production.</div>
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We are also faced by the spectre of a new military arms race on the eastern border of Europe; by domestic and foreign religious terrorism; and by imploding nation states in the Middle East and North Africa.</div>
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Internally, we are beset by an aging population, by overweight and inefficient public sectors, and by the patholody of self-entitlement. Our pension systems and wider public sector governance is based on an economic and social model that existed in the 1950s, but which today no longer applies.</div>
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We have created the myth of a “social state” in many countries, where large segments of the population rest idle while a majority struggles for economic survival.</div>
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This myth of a “social state” has also morphed into the myth of a “social Europe”, where the countries that are doing better economically are supposed to pay for those that are not.</div>
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By enshrining the financial system of being a net contributor or a net beneficiary, this European financing system has ignored the idea of quality. What are the consequences when a country is badly managed, as was the case of Greece under PASOK and New Democracy?</div>
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At what point should the European and bilateral spending stop, because it is no longer an agent of positive change, but a vector of corruption and mismanagement?</div>
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Even within the European Union, the competitive struggles of the nation-state continue. Indeed, they are amplified, because competition is that much higher.</div>
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Unless voters learn this lesson and act responsibly, the only future scenario that will unfold is more economic collapses in the style of Greece, or more populism in the style of Farage or Le Pen, or more waffling in the style of Cameron or Holland.</div>
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(c) <a href="http://www.navigator-consulting.com/page/consultants/philip-ammerman" style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; color: #4173ae; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Philip Ammerman</a>, 2016</div>
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This post was first published on <a href="http://www.navigator-consulting.com/articles/the-apparent-and-overstated-death-of-europe/73" target="_blank">Navigator Consulting Group</a>. </div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-85877081839064768522016-06-24T18:06:00.003+03:002016-06-24T18:06:34.969+03:00Donald Trump in Scotland<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-43269561954889407652016-06-24T09:32:00.000+03:002016-06-24T09:35:45.623+03:00Thoughts on Brexit<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: white;">It’s Friday morning, June 24</span><span style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">th</span><span style="background-color: white;"> and already I’ve received several inquiries about the meaning and the impact of the #Brexit vote. Although the full referendum vote hasn’t been counted, Leave currently has a lead of over 1 million votes, and in a referendum, it’s the number of votes that count, not their distribution.</span></div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Why Brexit? </strong></h2>
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So why Brexit? Primarily because domestic economic conditions have been so difficult, UK voters have cast a very strong protest vote. </div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">High Cost of Living / Changing Economic Patterns</em></strong></div>
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For years, the UK middle class has been “hollowed out” by high costs of living. The two main components of this are property prices and high debt amounts (and costs) for higher education. In contrast, the number of well-paying jobs in the UK has been shrinking, particularly for less-skilled workers. In this respect, the UK is not an outlier: these are common trends that affect nearly all OECD countries.</div>
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Just as these are common trends, this also means the EU is something of a symptom, not a root cause (with some important exceptions). The number of low-income jobs is rising because in a service economy, this is an expected trend. The next stage of this trend will be to replace human workers with software and robots, so this trend is only expected to continue, exacerbating the problem.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Property</em></strong></div>
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Rising property prices have created an entrenched class of very highly rewarded insiders. Property prices have risen for a number of reasons: UK cities such as London are seen as a global haven for capital, and high-end property has been booming as a result, up until the recent stamp tax. UK local authorities (municipalities) have not been authorising enough new builds, or new builds in the right location. Economic immigrants from the European Union (in particular the lower-wage new EU Member States, but even older members like France or Spain) have been bidding up the cost of rent. And, perhaps most importantly, everyone has jumped on the property bandwagon because it has been an intellectually easy proposition. UK culture is now, arguably, dominated by property anxiety and the smug selling of everyone on this bandwagon.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Zero Hour Contracts and Apprenticeships</em></strong></div>
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Like Germany, the UK has introduced labour legislation that has effectively turned millions of younger and low-qualified, service workers in to wage slaves while flattering national unemployment statistics. This is the zero hour contract, a work contract in which an employer hires an employee, but is not obligated to actually provide them with any hours of work. This is great for flexibility, but terrible for skills generation and wages. And just like the German “mini-jobs” legislation, this has been a purely domestic decision that has had nothing to do with the EU.</div>
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The same exact issue is seen with UK apprenticeships. Born out of a desire to see younger people enter and upskill in the labour force, instead employers like Starbucks or McDonald’s have been using apprenticeships as a way of reducing labour costs. Again, none of this has to do with EU decisions. <strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></div>
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The EU has provoked at least two conditions which have exacerbated the British problem. The first is in trade. As a member of a large free trade zone, the UK economy now depends on the European Commission to monitor trade conditions and negotiate trade deals. There are a number of cases where the Commission has not reacted anywhere quickly enough to drastic cases of price dumping—notably involving multiple Chinese export sectors. Steel and building materials come to mind. The reaction in these cases must be swift: on an order of 1-2 months. The European Commission is simply not fit for this. Even here, however, I note that Member States have a responsibility to bring trade matters to the Commission, and the British Government has been quite remiss on this in the past.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Immigration</em></strong></div>
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The second point is immigration (and emigration). Yes, there have been numerous EU immigrants to the UK: over 3 million. These have bid up the price of rent and have created downward pressures on labour prices. Most restaurants, hotels, retail outlets and other service industries in the UK today depend entirely on hosts of Polish, Lithuania, Bulgarian and Romanian workers, just as in the past they depended on other immigrants. This has created a new labour supply that has been, for the most part, extremely reliable and disciplined, and extremely useful for British employers. However, the number of non-EU immigrants to the UK is actually higher: over 5 million. And many of the latter carry cultural or social traditions which make integration and assimilation much more difficult.</div>
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Another point regarding population is that many British have actually retired and relocated within the European Union. These numbers do not show up adequately in the statistics: just over 1 million British have relocated within the EU. But this is because a large majority of British expats are retirees, and have continued their registration in the UK so that pension payments and National Health System access remain undisturbed. They actually live full time in areas such as Paphos, Cyprus, or the Spanish Mediterranean coastline.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Declining British Influence</em></strong></div>
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A final point about the EU is that for at least 10 years, Britain has ignored the vital role of placing UK citizens in high-ranking positions within European organisations, starting with the European Commission. As such, Britain’s influence within the EU has been declining, while Germany’s has been increasing.</div>
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All these points have focussed domestic voter rage against the political system. The genius of politicians like Nigel Farage has been to define an external enemy (the European Union) as a focal point for that rage. This is a very old political method that has been an entrenched in politics since the time of the Roman Republic, if not longer.</div>
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Referendum Issues and Causality</h2>
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So what brought about these referendum results? First of all, this referendum is a protest vote. But it is a protest not so much about the European Union, as about the dismal conditions of the British economy and society. Any referendum inevitably becomes about domestic political issues, and the UK Referendum is no exception.</div>
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Let’s look at some of the causalities expressed or implied.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Will British wages rise if 3 million EU workers are expelled from the UK?</em></strong></div>
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Yes, but only if British prices rise as well. In the short term expelling 3 million mostly low-cost EU workers will bid up the price of labour, resulting in a wage increase. This wage increase will require hotels, pubs, insurance claims processors, building companies and many other firms to raise the prices they charge British consumers.</div>
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Over the medium term, however, this will accelerate the replacement of low-cost / low-productivity workers with software or automation. Over time in a developed economy, there is very little chance wages in low-cost, low-productivity professions will rise. It is more likely that job positions will be replaced.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Will British property prices fall if 3 million EU workers are expelled?</em></strong></div>
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Yes. But that fall in prices will have an extreme impact on property demand, and therefore property prices. The trillions of pounds invested in the British mortgage system will be affected as a result. And the financial returns and capitalisation of everything from banks to pension funds will also be hit. The UK has created a financial monster from its property system. A correction is needed, but a correction has to be sustainable.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Will the UK “regain control” over its government if it leaves the EU?</em></strong></div>
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Yes. However, I note that in most cases, the UK has agreed to every EU decision made over the past 30 years. You only have to examine British voting in the European Council or the European Parliament to understand this.</div>
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The main problems within the UK are not the result of EU decisions, but domestic British considerations and decisions.</div>
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There is nothing that shows to me that the quality of British politicians, and their decision-making process, is any better than the EU process. Micro- and domestic-considerations dominate, interpreted through an electoral prism.</div>
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A typical example here was the decision to allow UK universities to charge up to £ 9000 for tuition, together with the corollary decision that 50% of young adults should have a university education. These decisions have had nothing to do with EU policy, and have created tremendous distortions in the educational system, consumer spending and debt markets at a result.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Will the UK economy experience a resurgence from being able to strike free trade deals with other countries?</em></strong></div>
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Doubtful. The UK already benefits from being part of the EU because the EU negotiates as a single trade bloc. This means that trade rivals such as China have to negotiate better terms.</div>
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Does anyone really believe that the UK will be able to negotiate a better deal with China alone? I don’t. At least, I remember what happened the last time the UK tried a major negotiation with China. Hong Kong is still suffering over it.</div>
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The UK will only be able to improve its trade position through two potential policy options:</div>
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Protectionism: The UK would have to implement trade barriers against a large range of products and services in order to shelter domestic industries. This would result in a wholesale and retail price rise in most sectors.</div>
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Productivity, Innovation and Export-Led Growth: The UK would have to really align public policy and sectoral orientation on productivity, innovation, and export-led growth.</div>
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I note that this second option has actually been EU policy for years, and that the UK has failed miserably at it in most sectors. Indeed, many British success stories today are actually due to immigrant managers or foreign companies buying and turning around British icons.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: scroll; background-image: none; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: repeat repeat; border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Leaving the EU will enable the UK to manage itself better</em></strong></div>
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Doubtful. Does anyone really believe that Nigel Farage would be a better manager than Jean-Claude Juncker? I don’t.</div>
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This is not to say that I believe JC Juncker is a great manager: far from it. What I am saying is that the quality of elected public sector managers in nearly every country I work in is abysmal, because the political process no longer serves the goal of having competent national management. Instead, it serves either special interests, or a mix of demagoguery and populism, and I am not sure whether one is the handmaiden of the other, or whether one is the outcome of the other.</div>
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Whether we look at the United States or the UK or France or Greece, a common issue is the inability of elected insiders to respond to the fundamental challenges affecting society and the economy. Whether this is an inability due to lack of competence, or an inability due to lack of actual desire, is open to debate.</div>
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At the end of the day, the only thing that is going to save the average OECD countries is a mix of very hard work, continual innovation, strong foresight and forecasting skills, and honest and competent leadership.</div>
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Contrast that with what we have:</div>
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Special interests dominate the electoral process</div>
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We elect lawyers with no real business experience or track record of success</div>
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Politics is the one profession where lying is not only permissible, it is necessary</div>
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The political process occurs on a timeline which is totally unrelated to economic or social needs</div>
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There are no consequences of failure</div>
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The press consistently misrepresents nearly every major issue.</div>
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What is more dominant in the average daily engagement of a British citizen today? Facebook, or David Cameron? I believe the answer is Facebook. And I am not singling out British citizens: I believe this is the same for nearly every EU or OECD citizen.</div>
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Future post to deal with the next steps in the process. For now, it’s urgently time to get back to work.</div>
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© <a href="http://www.navigator-consulting.com/page/consultants/philip-ammerman" target="_blank">Philip Ammerman</a>, 2016<br />
<br />
This post was originally published on <a href="http://www.navigator-consulting.com/articles/thoughts-on-brexit/72" target="_blank">Navigator Consulting Group</a>.</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-35779043606337627142016-06-20T11:17:00.000+03:002016-06-20T11:27:52.292+03:00Donald Trump, the Media and Racial Profiling<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp4t7TQg2vzdUgMkuXSBPhtJWeZ98TV66IpXYxcz0RiP2y-BHzCzaogve1aRH3hDQJhEyjV-kYOYMDKfLsRIfewMdHFahVCH0nyWBbr9R6FynwflWlBTKzY0GVbn1wCDmUysc0_HcCwxUb/s1600/DonaldTrumpWikipedia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp4t7TQg2vzdUgMkuXSBPhtJWeZ98TV66IpXYxcz0RiP2y-BHzCzaogve1aRH3hDQJhEyjV-kYOYMDKfLsRIfewMdHFahVCH0nyWBbr9R6FynwflWlBTKzY0GVbn1wCDmUysc0_HcCwxUb/s1600/DonaldTrumpWikipedia.jpg" /></a></div>
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Donald Trump (photo (c) <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>)</div>
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<span lang="EN-GB">Race
(noun)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #2d2f32; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">(a) a family,
tribe, people, or nation belonging to the same stock (
b) a class or kind
of people unified by shared interests, habits, or characteristics
</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #2d2f32; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><a href="http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/race">Merriam-Webster
Dictionary</a> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-themecolor: text1;">Each of the major divisions of humankind, having distinct physical
characteristics: <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">people of all races,
colors, and creeds<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><a href="http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/race">Oxford
Dictionaries</a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">I was surprised to see some of the
“mainstream media" calling out Donald Trump as being in favour of “racial
profiling” of Muslims in America. Please check the following media reports of his <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-transcripts-june-19-2016-trump-lynch-lapierre-feinstein/" target="_blank">CBS Face the Nation interview</a> on Sunday. I’ve underlined the words “racial profiling” from a few media sources in bold. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB">CBS: <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-after-orlando-racial-profiling-not-the-worst-thing-to-do/">Donald
Trump: U.S. must "start thinking about" racial profiling</a>, 19 June
2016. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Donald Trump said Sunday
that in the wake of the mass shooting in Orlando, it's time for the United
States to start looking at <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>racial
profiling</u></b> as a preventative tactic.</span></i><i><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB">Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-idUSKCN0Z50PV">Trump
says U.S. should consider racial profiling</a>, 19 June 2016 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Republican
Donald Trump said on Sunday the United States should consider more <b style="text-decoration: underline;">racial profiling</b> in law
enforcement, after urging harsher policies following last week's mass shooting
in Orlando.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Huffington Post: </span><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-racial-profiling_us_5766b8efe4b0853f8bf12da5">Get
Ready For Racial Profiling Under President Donald Trump</a>, 19 June 2016. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Donald Trump said Sunday
that although he hates the idea of <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>racial
profiling</u></b>, it might just be time to start implementing it anyway.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">The strange thing is, when
you read the transcripts of his interview, <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">he
didn’t actually mention racial profiling</span>. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">You can view the complete <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-transcripts-june-19-2016-trump-lynch-lapierre-feinstein/">CBS
News transcript</a> of his call-in interview. I’ve copied the transcript in at
the bottom of this post for accuracy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">It’s difficult to understand how the word “racial”
made it into the news headline next to the word “profiling”. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1f1f1f; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">But our media organisations (and Mr. Trump) should remember that </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">being a Muslim
is not a race. Islam is a religion. There are moderate and conservative
Muslims; there are African Nigerian Muslims as there are Asian Indonesian
Muslims as there are Caucasian French Muslims. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-fareast-language: JA;">According to the <a href="http://census.gov/topics/population/race/about.html">US Census Bureau</a>,
there are five minimum categories of race:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">White<span style="color: #1a1a1a;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">Black or African American<span style="color: #1a1a1a;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">American Indian or Alaska Native<span style="color: #1a1a1a;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">Asian<span style="color: #1a1a1a;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific
Islander.<span style="color: #1a1a1a;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">There is also an “origin”, which is defined as
follows: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">The racial categories included in the census
questionnaire generally reflect a social definition of race recognized in this
country and not an attempt to define race biologically, anthropologically, or
genetically. In addition, it is recognized that the categories of the race item
include racial and national origin or sociocultural groups. People may choose
to report more than one race to indicate their racial mixture, such as
“American Indian” and “White.” People who identify their origin as Hispanic,
Latino, or Spanish may be of any race.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">I also want to note that religious profiling is directly
prohibited by Article 3 of the <a href="http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/bill_of_rights_transcript.html">United
States Bill of Rights</a>: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Article the third</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;">... Congress shall make no law
respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise
thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of
the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress
of grievances.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;">So Donald Trump’s earlier assertions of “screening”
Muslim immigrants may be anti-constitutional, depending in fact on how it is
legally and institutionally implemented. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;">This post should not be read with the
understanding that I am defending Donald Trump: I am not. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;">I do note, however,
that in this case, unless he mentioned something not in the interview
transcript, he did not use the words “racial profiling”. And indeed, such an
exercise would not be racial profiling, but religious profiling. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p>(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016 </o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #362f2f; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-transcripts-june-19-2016-trump-lynch-lapierre-feinstein/">CBS
Face the Nation Transcript</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">Good
morning, and welcome to FACE THE NATION. I'm John Dickerson.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">It's been
one week since Omar Mateen shot and killed 49 people and injured 53 more in a
gay nightclub in Orlando. The largest mass shooting in U.S. history has sparked
a heated political debate in America.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">We begin
this morning with Donald Trump, who joins us by phone from New Jersey.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">This is a
person who would not have been stopped by any kind of temporary ban, was born
as American citizen. What Donald Trump policy would have kept this from
happening?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DONALD
TRUMP (R), PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Well, we have to report.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">Look, the
big thing that we're missing here is that people have to report when they see
somebody. This man was pretty much unhinged. I mean, you look at his record.
You look at what happened. And, actually, I guess it was the gun store that did
report, and reported him when he went in to buy all sorts of body armor and
other things. He reported him to the authorities, law enforcement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And it --
very sadly, nothing was done.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
But the...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP: It
could have been prevented.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">He was
excellent in what he did, but, unfortunately, nobody took advantage of it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
But he was...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP: When
you -- John, when look at -- when look at people within the Muslim community
and where people are living and they don't report -- and good example that have
would be San Bernardino. They had bombs all over their apartment floor, and
people saw it, and nobody reported them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And 14
people were killed, many injured.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
So -- but, in this case, he was investigated twice by the FBI, was taken off a
list. There was no red flag that suggested that he was -- that he was going to
go do this. So, what was there to report?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Well, there were red flags, I mean, because when he walked in to buy all sorts
of ammunition and body armor and all sorts of I guess body armor and other
things, the owner of the store reported him. And so there were red flags.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">(CROSSTALK)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP: And
the you look at his past. You look at -- I have never seen a past quite like
that that was -- you look at his record in school. You look at lot of other
things. There are a lot of red flags. This was not a very good young man.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
Should somebody who goes in to buy that much ammunition be -- get extra
scrutiny?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Well, I think it depends. Everybody wants to be so politically correct, and
they want to do what is right and they're afraid to do anything, and a word --
words that are killing us, political correctness, but, unfortunately, it wasn't
followed up.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
When you talk about political correctness, should a Muslim buying ammunition
and weapons get extra scrutiny?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP: I don't
know about that.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">I think,
right now, we have some pretty big problems. And there are problems coming out
of radical Islamic -- the radical Islamic groups. You have a very, very strong
group of people that is radical Islamic, and that seems to be a problem.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
And you said you would check respectfully the mosques. How do you respectfully
check a mosque?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Well, you do as they used to do in New York, prior to this mayor dismantling.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">By the way,
if you go to France right now, they're doing it in France. In fact, in some
instances, they are closing down mosques. People don't want to talk about it.
People aren't talking about it. But look at what they're doing in France. They
are actually closing down mosques.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
Can I ask you just a bottom-line question before we move on? You like to speak
plainly. In December, we talked, and you said there possibly should be
profiling. Just as a bottom line here, are you talking about increasing
profiling of Muslims in America?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Well, I think profiling is something that we're going to have to start thinking
about as a country. And other countries do it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And you
look at Israel and you look at others, and they do it. And they do it
successfully. And I hate the concept of profiling. But we have to start using
common sense, and we have to use -- we have to use our heads.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">I see
people that -- and I have seen it recently. We had a case where very much in my
case, where we had -- we had tremendous numbers of people coming into a speech
I was making. And people that obviously had no guns, had no weapons, had no
anything, and they were being -- they were going through screening.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And they
were going through the same -- the same scrutiny, the absolute same scrutiny as
somebody else that looked like it could have been a possible person. So, we
really have to look at profiling. We have to look at it seriously.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And other
countries do it. And it's not the worst thing to do. I hate the concept of
profiling, but we have to use common sense. We're not using common sense.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
Let me ask you about the NRA's position on selling guns to people on the terror
watch list or the no-fly list. What is the difference between your position and
the NRA position?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Well, my position, because I'm dealing with the NRA, and I have great respect
for them. And Wayne and Chris and all of the people up there, these are great
people. These are people that love their country incredibly. And I don't think
they get enough credit for it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">But I'm
dealing with the NRA. As you know, they gave me their endorsement, one of the
early endorsements they have ever given for a presidential candidate. I'm a
member of the NRA. My two sons are members of the NRA for a long time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And I'm
talking to them about the whole concept of terror watch lists. Should we take
somebody directly off it -- if there is a terror watch list and if somebody is
on, should they be allowed to buy a gun?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">Now, we
understand there are problems with that, because some people are on the terror
watch list that shouldn't be on. You understand that. And that's happened.
Maybe you can reverse it. And we work very hard to find out. If they can't get
a gun, we work hard and diligently to get them off the list, if they indeed
shouldn't be on the list.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">So, I'm
working with the NRA. We are discussing it. And, again, the NRA has the best
interests of our country at -- it just has the absolute best interests of our
country. They want to make the right decision. These are great people. And
these are great Americans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
Let me ask -- switch to <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/politics/"><span style="color: #6f1016; text-decoration: none;">politics</span></a>.
You said to Republican leaders, don't talk, be quiet. Who was that directed
towards?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Well, nobody in particular.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And you
have to understand, I have tremendous support, including from congressmen and
senators and governors, and you take a look at -- throughout the whole --
Senator Sessions has been amazing. And I could name many, many congressmen that
have been absolutely amazing and strong.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
These are not obscure figures, though, when you say Republican leaders, don't
talk, be quiet. Certainly, Paul Ryan has spoken out, Mitch McConnell. Those are
not fringe figures. You have said, if they don't cooperate, you might go it
alone.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">So, it's
not -- this is -- this is you talking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Well, my attitude on that, look, I won the primaries with the largest vote
ever. I brought a lot of extra voters, a lot of voters, I guess, up 70 percent
or close to 70 percent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">We brought
additional people in that wouldn't have been in if I weren't doing this and I
were not running. And I would say this. If people -- and especially where
people endorse me that are Republican leaders, I think that, honestly, they
should go about their business and they should do a wonderful job, and they
should work on budgets, and get the budgets down, and get the military the kind
of money they need, and lots of other things.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">And they
shouldn't -- they shouldn't be talking so much. They should go out and do their
job. Let me do my job. I have tremendous support from both politicians and the
people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
All right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Tremendous support. Unfortunately, the media just likes to cover really a small
number of people that maybe have something to say. I think they should go about
their work. Let me run for president. I think I'm going to do very well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">DICKERSON:
OK, Mr. Trump, we will have to leave it there. Thanks so much for being with
us.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-fareast-language: JA;">TRUMP:
Thank you very much, John.</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-32945328347249282016-05-19T13:00:00.002+03:002016-05-19T13:00:47.173+03:00Chris Hedge: Empire of Illusion<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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I came across Chris Hedge’s Empire of Illusion: the end of Literacy and the Triumph of Spectacle (2009) by chance some days ago. Although written nearly 8 years ago, some of his findings illustrate why Donald Trump is such as success. </div>
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<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><i>Functional illiteracy in North America is epidemic. There are 7 million
illiterate Americans. Another 27 million are unable to read well enough to
complete a job application, and 30 million can’t read a simple sentence. There
are some 50 million who read at a fourth- or fifth-grade level. Nearly a third
of the nation’s population is illiterate or barely literate–a figure that is
growing by more than 2 million per year. A third of high school graduates never
read another book for the rest of their lives, and neither do 42 percent of
college graduates. In 2007, 80 percent of the families in the United States did
not buy or read a book. <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
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<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
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<span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;"><i>...</i></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span lang="DE" style="mso-ansi-language: DE; mso-fareast-language: JA;">Television, a medium built around the skillful manipulation of images, ones
that can overpower reality, is our primary form of mass communication. A
television is turned on for six hours and forty-seven minutes a day in the
average household. The average American daily watches more than four hours of
television. That amounts to twenty-eight hours a week, or two months of
uninterrupted television-watching a year. That same person will have spent nine
years in front of a television by the time he or she is sixty. </span><span lang="EN-GB">Television speaks in a language of familiar, comforting cliches and
exciting images. Its format, from reality shows to sit-coms, is predictable. It
provides a mass, virtual experience that colors the way many people speak and
interact with one another. It creates a false sense of intimacy with our
elite—celebrity actors, newspeople, politicians, business tycoons and sports
stars. And everything and everyone that television transmits is validated and
enhanced by the medium.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><i>...</i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><i>The worse reality becomes, the less a beleaguered population wants to hear about it, and the more it distracts itself with a squalid pseudo-events of celebrity breakdowns, gossip and trivia. These are the debauched revels of a dying civilization. The most ominous cultural divide lies between those who chase after these manufactured illusions, and those who are able to puncture the illusion and confront reality. More than the divides of race, class, or gender, more than rural or urban, believer or unbeliever, red state or blue state, our culture has been carved up into radically distinct, unbridgeable and antagonistic entities that no longer speak the same language and cannot communicate. This is the divide between a literate, marginalized minority and those who have been consumed by an illiterate mass culture. </i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Some of his conclusions are questionable. But his analysis is largely correct, and since 2008 things have only gotten worse. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-33374200190175740922016-05-18T09:49:00.000+03:002016-05-18T09:49:20.897+03:00Martin Wolf on the Elites in US Elections<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">One conversation I have been having more and more frequently these days is whether the US political system, having been so decisively broken, can ever be put together again. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The role of money in politics; the revolving door between the administration and the private sector; the obviously wasteful public spending policies; the real lack of basic common sense; the distortions introduced by shibboleths such as gun control = independence or government = bad; the highly sophisticated voter targetting techniques; the willingness of political operatives to do "whatever it takes" to distort a message or an opponent; the very obvious disconnect between political rhetoric and reality: all these are factors that suggest to me that the American Republic is quickly becoming an Empire in the same way the Roman Republic transitioned first to a "national security / political effectiveness" empire, then into a simple hereditary empire. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">On this subject, Martin Wolf had an absolutely brilliant article in the Financial Times today on the role of elites in the US election. <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f27340fc-1848-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e.html#axzz48zFWaVW8" target="_blank">Failing elites are to blame for unleashing Donald Trump</a> - 17 April 2016. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">A very quick extract: </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In addition, elites on both sides promoted economic changes that ended up destroying trust in their competence and probity. In this, the financial crisis and consequent bailouts were decisive.</span></i></div>
<div style="line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div data-track-pos="2" style="line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Yet by then the middle classes had suffered decades of <span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">real income stagnation and relative income decline</span>. Globalisation has brought huge benefits to many of the world’s poor. But there were significant domestic losers. Today, the latter believe that those who run the economy and polity impoverish, exploit and despise them.</span></i></div>
<div data-track-pos="2" style="line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div style="line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Even Republican elites have become their enemy and Mr Trump has become their saviour. It is no surprise that he is a billionaire. Caesar, aristocratic leader of the popular party, brought forth “Caesarism”, the rule of the charismatic strongman that Mr Trump wants to be.</span></i></div>
<div data-track-pos="3" style="line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div data-track-pos="3" style="line-height: 18px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A healthy republic does not require equality, far from it. But it does require a degree of mutual sympathy. Sudden wealth from new activities — conquest in ancient Rome, banking in medieval Florence — can corrode social bonds. If <span style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;">civic virtue vanishes</span>, a republic becomes ripe for destruction.</span></i></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Well worth the read. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It is very obvious that the rise of Donald Trump is only the latest manifestation in a long and sorry history of political action over the past 20 years. Even if he will be defeated (and I cannot claim to support the Democratic alternative), the tactics he has left behind will live on. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016 </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-79517409498214466852016-04-22T13:30:00.001+03:002016-04-22T13:30:21.995+03:00Politico: Delegates Face Death Threats from Trump Supporters<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIu8P-Q0Ih-W8dOh_B23sLRq0XegfLmuVolr3PZ3XgPQkoaeRQOwvqy-eMmkETqobqPBGdur94rwVTdX5v2yUxk9DRkGo9ucpfgjhI7BoASoKZiGyZ_BS1rn-OIBPx8HsmqCMCssRD91Hc/s1600/Trump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIu8P-Q0Ih-W8dOh_B23sLRq0XegfLmuVolr3PZ3XgPQkoaeRQOwvqy-eMmkETqobqPBGdur94rwVTdX5v2yUxk9DRkGo9ucpfgjhI7BoASoKZiGyZ_BS1rn-OIBPx8HsmqCMCssRD91Hc/s640/Trump.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span>
<div style="text-align: center;">
Photo (c) Getty, provided on the <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/delegates-face-death-threats-from-trump-supporters-222302" target="_blank">Politico website</a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Politico ran an article today that I'd like to comment briefly on. (</span><a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/delegates-face-death-threats-from-trump-supporters-222302" target="_blank">Delegates face death threats from Trump supporters</a>)</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">I read media with a skeptical mind. Having said that, there are many signals in this article and other sources to worry about. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">On a broader scale, I have wondered since GW Bush just how long the American Republic would last. Can a system so obviously dominated by money and special interests survive? (I speak here non-ideologically: the money and special interests are on both sides of the aisle). </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">The candidate pictured below, with his personal pledges of allegiance and his Mar</span><span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">-a-Lago, reminds me not so much of "bread and circuses", but of torchlit rallies and Berchtesgaden. This is the first time that I can recall a Presidential candidate openly organising around the threat of political violence. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">It's also the first time I can recall so much effort being placed on "influencing" convention delegates, both positively and negatively. Perhaps this is only the latest step in a general culture so enamoured of military, celebrity-success-at-any-price, and guns. But it does not bode well for the future. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Civil liberties are already practically non-existent, or available only to the rich. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We see daily just how badly the primary system and the general election systems work. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We read how much more money each election costs, as if this were an acceptable cost of doing business. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We read that a former lobbyist for the big bulge banks is appointed head of the SEC--the very institution charged with regulating those banks. And that the revolving door in politics is alive and well. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We admire Frank Underwood and binge watch each new season of House of Cards precisely because it confirms what we all suspect. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We accept that Hillary Clinton earns hundreds of thousands of dollars from banks, but that this does not influence her vote. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">If we are all frogs in a pot, just what temperature has the water reached?</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="color: #141823; display: inline; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016</span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-70860185038867280282016-04-13T08:46:00.001+03:002016-04-13T08:46:27.164+03:00Evidence of a Paphos Recovery<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl1WM2mpy8dzzQvk0_HDamwxGPCUZnq055hGZFhz7RI6SB5MOtTCnX_2qYFn4Tuo3Z1UfdrKabjQZkUnwP1jIex5LzaDdEzNFnEU60IJMZzTAz9ZQpxqxW4XM1hXs7qpCNr8KDNvVBxoHJ/s1600/PaphosShipwreck.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl1WM2mpy8dzzQvk0_HDamwxGPCUZnq055hGZFhz7RI6SB5MOtTCnX_2qYFn4Tuo3Z1UfdrKabjQZkUnwP1jIex5LzaDdEzNFnEU60IJMZzTAz9ZQpxqxW4XM1hXs7qpCNr8KDNvVBxoHJ/s640/PaphosShipwreck.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">On a recent visit to Paphos, there were
several signs that the economic situation is slowly turning around. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">The <a href="http://www.pafos2017.eu/?lang=en">Pafos 2017 European Capital of Culture</a>
is creating significant interest. Booking allocations for 2017 are already
being negotiated with foreign tour operators as well as event organisers.
Moreover, Pafos Municipality has launched an ambitious renovation programme in
the Harbour and City of Paphos, including 28<sup>th</sup> October Square and
Tomb of the Kings Avenue. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: none; text-indent: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Paphos is becoming known as a
golf destination. Four major golf resorts—Aphrodite Hills, Minthis Hills, Elea
Estate and Secret Valley—have all seen record golf rounds played in 2015. The
Cyprus Tourism Organisation and the Pafos Regional Tourism Committee are
heavily promoting Cyprus as a golf destination. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Incoming tourism arrivals to
Cyprus and Paphos are growing. Arrivals grew by 9% in 2015, to 2.659 million,
while revenue grew to nearly € 2.2 billion. Arrivals are expected to grow still
further in 2016, based on early block bookings from European tour operators. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">The use of villa rentals as a
substitute for hotel accommodation is growing. AirBNB and Booking.com are both
heavily promoting villa and apartment rentals in Paphos, and the available
stock of rental properties on both websites is increasing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Paphos International Airport is
seeing a surge in passenger traffic. Total passenger traffic rose from 2.097
million in 2014 to 2.278 million in 2015. A growing number of carriers are
flying into Pafos International Airport, including Ryanair, Easyjet, Nikki,
Germania, Air Jordan, Finnair, Arkia, TUI, Thomas Cook and Thomson Airways. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Banks have resumed mortgage
lending for Cyprus residents. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-GB" style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-GB">Foreign investors are buying
Cyprus properties in Pafos for the investor citizenship and residency
programmes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">These factors are combining to create an
interesting set of signals for property investors and owners. Together with the
stock of distressed or unfinished properties, there are significant commercial
opportunities available in Paphos. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">I was also recently interviewed by a great
new destination portal, <a href="http://www.pafoscity.com/">www.pafoscity.com</a>.
Check the <a href="http://pafoscity.com/invest-in-paphos-philip-ammerman/" target="_blank">video interview here</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016 </span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-72809372052028465762016-04-13T07:55:00.001+03:002016-04-13T07:55:55.829+03:00When will Airport Duty Free Retailers stop being Idiots? <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">I wonder whether the collective stupidity
that characterises most retail interactions in airports will ever change. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">This morning I flew Larnaca to Warsaw at
03:40. At Warsaw airport, I bought a 500 ml bottle of water at the duty free. Here
is a record of the interaction. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “Good morning. May I have your
boarding pass?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">I hand over the boarding pass. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “Is Vilnius your final
destination?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">“Yes”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “For statistics purposes, may I
ask where are you from?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">“Athens”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “That’s 6 zloty”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">I hand over 5 Euro.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “I have to give you change in
zloty.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">“Fine”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “Here is your change.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">“Thank you”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “Would you like a plastic bag for
the water?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">“No”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Cashier: “Have a nice day!”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Fucking collective insanity. So much about
this retail transaction is wrong.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2;">
</div>
<ul style="text-align: left;">
<li><span lang="EN-GB">Duty Free retailers do not need
my boarding card, nor my final destination, nor where I am from. This is a
gross violation of basic privacy rights.</span></li>
<li>In all my years travelling (and
I am on the road 200+ days per year, with over 60 flight segments per year), no
Duty Free retailer has ever actually used this data to improve my shopping
experience, or even to contact me with anything relevant.</li>
<li>I am just buying a fucking,
grossly-overpriced bottle of water.</li>
<li>I do not need a plastic bag for
a bottle of water. The bottle is already damaging to the environment. Why make
it worse?</li>
<li>It should be obvious that at
06:30 in the morning, even assuming I had slept the night before, that I don’t
need a third-degree interrogation to buy a bottle of water.</li>
</ul>
<!--[if !supportLists]--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">This is a useless and offensive procedure.
I had exactly the same experience in Larnaca, buying another over-priced bottle
of water (€ 1.50 in Larnaca instead of € 2.00 in Warsaw). Right down to the
offer of a plastic bag. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Is there any evidence of sentient life in Dufy retailer management? Is there any prospect of relief from the vast and collective
stupidity which characterises most bureaucracies today? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">Get a grip. Really. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-GB">© Philip Ammerman, 2016 <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-660245739708697440.post-55998159861219270532016-03-25T13:35:00.001+02:002016-03-25T13:35:52.416+02:00Another March 25th Extravaganza<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqVGf166RfZhf596OmifhFbSouqqU_0hJopX6T8z7zlKbTFBHrfiOXIbHT2QColp0Ndv-I6YBv_G7rCL1RGPlovuZ1ObGZ-aFi2w5CiD2WdOUbQtyhLWgBntQI_v4Hh_o2Ao0E8CWxXld1/s1600/Tigani.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqVGf166RfZhf596OmifhFbSouqqU_0hJopX6T8z7zlKbTFBHrfiOXIbHT2QColp0Ndv-I6YBv_G7rCL1RGPlovuZ1ObGZ-aFi2w5CiD2WdOUbQtyhLWgBntQI_v4Hh_o2Ao0E8CWxXld1/s640/Tigani.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
I'm writing this blog post on March 25th, which is Greek Independence Day. I've just returned from an early lunch of bakaliaro skordalia from a greasy spoon taverna in the district of Athens where my parents live.<br />
<br />
Some notes:<br />
<br />
1. The restaurant was fully-booked, with rush hour expected from 13:00 and later. People were being turned away at the door. This is despite the Greek economic crisis.<br />
<br />
2. The managers, knowing there would be a rush, had pre-fried a large batch of bakaliaros (cod), which they served fried in batter. It was perhaps not the finest moment in Greek cuisine.<br />
<br />
3. The bill came scribbled on paper. Not printed off the cash register.<br />
<br />
4. Three people at three odious portions of cod plus boiled greens and taramosalata for € 30.00<br />
<br />
5. Smoking was permitted inside the taverna.<br />
<br />
Oh, and I was the youngest person in the restaurant -- for a while.<br />
<br />
I wonder why so little in Greece seems to change, despite the very obvious need for it to change. And as usual, I have no answer.<br />
<br />
<br />
(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016 </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04706813821954088317noreply@blogger.com0