Showing posts with label US Presidential Election 2008. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Presidential Election 2008. Show all posts

Friday, 22 April 2016

Politico: Delegates Face Death Threats from Trump Supporters



Photo (c) Getty, provided on the Politico website


Politico ran an article today that I'd like to comment briefly on. (Delegates face death threats from Trump supporters)

I read media with a skeptical mind. Having said that, there are many signals in this article and other sources to worry about. 

On a broader scale, I have wondered since GW Bush just how long the American Republic would last. Can a system so obviously dominated by money and special interests survive? (I speak here non-ideologically: the money and special interests are on both sides of the aisle). 

The candidate pictured below, with his personal pledges of allegiance and his Mar-a-Lago, reminds me not so much of "bread and circuses", but of torchlit rallies and Berchtesgaden. This is the first time that I can recall a Presidential candidate openly organising around the threat of political violence. 

It's also the first time I can recall so much effort being placed on "influencing" convention delegates, both positively and negatively. Perhaps this is only the latest step in a general culture so enamoured of military, celebrity-success-at-any-price, and guns. But it does not bode well for the future. 

Civil liberties are already practically non-existent, or available only to the rich. 

We see daily just how badly the primary system and the general election systems work. 

We read how much more money each election costs, as if this were an acceptable cost of doing business. 

We read that a former lobbyist for the big bulge banks is appointed head of the SEC--the very institution charged with regulating those banks. And that the revolving door in politics is alive and well. 

We admire Frank Underwood and binge watch each new season of House of Cards precisely because it confirms what we all suspect. 

We accept that Hillary Clinton earns hundreds of thousands of dollars from banks, but that this does not influence her vote. 

If we are all frogs in a pot, just what temperature has the water reached?


(c) Philip Ammerman, 2016

Monday, 20 October 2008

The New Yorker's endorsement of Barack Obama

The New Yorker has endorsed Barack Obama for President in 2008 in its October 13th edition. I was really impressed with the eloquence and lucidity of this article. Though long, it's well worth the read. The link to the article online is here:
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/10/13/081013taco_talk_editors

I include the full text below. Although I normally provide only the link, TNY's website has been crashing a lot lately.

*****************

Never in living memory has an election been more critical than the one fast approaching—that’s the quadrennial cliché, as expected as the balloons and the bombast. And yet when has it ever felt so urgently true? When have so many Americans had so clear a sense that a Presidency has—at the levels of competence, vision, and integrity—undermined the country and its ideals?

The incumbent Administration has distinguished itself for the ages. The Presidency of George W. Bush is the worst since Reconstruction, so there is no mystery about why the Republican Party—which has held dominion over the executive branch of the federal government for the past eight years and the legislative branch for most of that time—has little desire to defend its record, domestic or foreign. The only speaker at the Convention in St. Paul who uttered more than a sentence or two in support of the President was his wife, Laura. Meanwhile, the nominee, John McCain, played the part of a vaudeville illusionist, asking to be regarded as an apostle of change after years of embracing the essentials of the Bush agenda with ever-increasing ardor.

The Republican disaster begins at home. Even before taking into account whatever fantastically expensive plan eventually emerges to help rescue the financial system from Wall Street’s long-running pyramid schemes, the economic and fiscal picture is bleak. During the Bush Administration, the national debt, now approaching ten trillion dollars, has nearly doubled. Next year’s federal budget is projected to run a half-trillion-dollar deficit, a precipitous fall from the seven-hundred-billion-dollar surplus that was projected when Bill Clinton left office.

Private-sector job creation has been a sixth of what it was under President Clinton. Five million people have fallen into poverty. The number of Americans without health insurance has grown by seven million, while average premiums have nearly doubled. Meanwhile, the principal domestic achievement of the Bush Administration has been to shift the relative burden of taxation from the rich to the rest. For the top one per cent of us, the Bush tax cuts are worth, on average, about a thousand dollars a week; for the bottom fifth, about a dollar and a half. The unfairness will only increase if the painful, yet necessary, effort to rescue the credit markets ends up preventing the rescue of our health-care system, our environment, and our physical, educational, and industrial infrastructure.

At the same time, a hundred and fifty thousand American troops are in Iraq and thirty-three thousand are in Afghanistan. There is still disagreement about the wisdom of overthrowing Saddam Hussein and his horrific regime, but there is no longer the slightest doubt that the Bush Administration manipulated, bullied, and lied the American public into this war and then mismanaged its prosecution in nearly every aspect. The direct costs, besides an expenditure of more than six hundred billion dollars, have included the loss of more than four thousand Americans, the wounding of thirty thousand, the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqis, and the displacement of four and a half million men, women, and children. Only now, after American forces have been fighting for a year longer than they did in the Second World War, is there a glimmer of hope that the conflict in Iraq has entered a stage of fragile stability.

The indirect costs, both of the war in particular and of the Administration’s unilateralist approach to foreign policy in general, have also been immense. The torture of prisoners, authorized at the highest level, has been an ethical and a public-diplomacy catastrophe. At a moment when the global environment, the global economy, and global stability all demand a transition to new sources of energy, the United States has been a global retrograde, wasteful in its consumption and heedless in its policy. Strategically and morally, the Bush Administration has squandered the American capacity to counter the example and the swagger of its rivals. China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other illiberal states have concluded, each in its own way, that democratic principles and human rights need not be components of a stable, prosperous future. At recent meetings of the United Nations, emboldened despots like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran came to town sneering at our predicament and hailing the “end of the American era.”

The election of 2008 is the first in more than half a century in which no incumbent President or Vice-President is on the ballot. There is, however, an incumbent party, and that party has been lucky enough to find itself, apparently against the wishes of its “base,” with a nominee who evidently disliked George W. Bush before it became fashionable to do so. In South Carolina in 2000, Bush crushed John McCain with a sub-rosa primary campaign of such viciousness that McCain lashed out memorably against Bush’s Christian-right allies.

So profound was McCain’s anger that in 2004 he flirted with the possibility of joining the Democratic ticket under John Kerry. Bush, who took office as a “compassionate conservative,” governed immediately as a rightist ideologue. During that first term, McCain bolstered his reputation, sometimes deserved, as a “maverick” willing to work with Democrats on such issues as normalizing relations with Vietnam, campaign-finance reform, and immigration reform. He co-sponsored, with John Edwards and Edward Kennedy, a patients’ bill of rights. In 2001 and 2003, he voted against the Bush tax cuts. With John Kerry, he co-sponsored a bill raising auto-fuel efficiency standards and, with Joseph Lieberman, a cap-and-trade regime on carbon emissions. He was one of a minority of Republicans opposed to unlimited drilling for oil and gas off America’s shores.

Since the 2004 election, however, McCain has moved remorselessly rightward in his quest for the Republican nomination. He paid obeisance to Jerry Falwell and preachers of his ilk. He abandoned immigration reform, eventually coming out against his own bill. Most shocking, McCain, who had repeatedly denounced torture under all circumstances, voted in February against a ban on the very techniques of “enhanced interrogation” that he himself once endured in Vietnam—as long as the torturers were civilians employed by the C.I.A.

On almost every issue, McCain and the Democratic Party’s nominee, Barack Obama, speak the generalized language of “reform,” but only Obama has provided a convincing, rational, and fully developed vision. McCain has abandoned his opposition to the Bush-era tax cuts and has taken up the demagogic call—in the midst of recession and Wall Street calamity, with looming crises in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—for more tax cuts. Bush’s expire in 2011. If McCain, as he has proposed, cuts taxes for corporations and estates, the benefits once more would go disproportionately to the wealthy.

In Washington, the craze for pure market triumphalism is over. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson arrived in town (via Goldman Sachs) a Republican, but it seems that he will leave a Democrat. In other words, he has come to see that the abuses that led to the current financial crisis––not least, excessive speculation on borrowed capital––can be fixed only with government regulation and oversight. McCain, who has never evinced much interest in, or knowledge of, economic questions, has had little of substance to say about the crisis. His most notable gesture of concern—a melodramatic call last month to suspend his campaign and postpone the first Presidential debate until the government bailout plan was ready—soon revealed itself as an empty diversionary tactic.

By contrast, Obama has made a serious study of the mechanics and the history of this economic disaster and of the possibilities of stimulating a recovery. Last March, in New York, in a speech notable for its depth, balance, and foresight, he said, “A complete disdain for pay-as-you-go budgeting, coupled with a generally scornful attitude towards oversight and enforcement, allowed far too many to put short-term gain ahead of long-term consequences.” Obama is committed to reforms that value not only the restoration of stability but also the protection of the vast majority of the population, which did not partake of the fruits of the binge years. He has called for greater and more programmatic regulation of the financial system; the creation of a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank, which would help reverse the decay of our roads, bridges, and mass-transit systems, and create millions of jobs; and a major investment in the green-energy sector.

On energy and global warming, Obama offers a set of forceful proposals. He supports a cap-and-trade program to reduce America’s carbon emissions by eighty per cent by 2050—an enormously ambitious goal, but one that many climate scientists say must be met if atmospheric carbon dioxide is to be kept below disastrous levels. Large emitters, like utilities, would acquire carbon allowances, and those which emit less carbon dioxide than their allotment could sell the resulting credits to those which emit more; over time, the available allowances would decline. Significantly, Obama wants to auction off the allowances; this would provide fifteen billion dollars a year for developing alternative-energy sources and creating job-training programs in green technologies. He also wants to raise federal fuel-economy standards and to require that ten per cent of America’s electricity be generated from renewable sources by 2012. Taken together, his proposals represent the most coherent and far-sighted strategy ever offered by a Presidential candidate for reducing the nation’s reliance on fossil fuels.

There was once reason to hope that McCain and Obama would have a sensible debate about energy and climate policy. McCain was one of the first Republicans in the Senate to support federal limits on carbon dioxide, and he has touted his own support for a less ambitious cap-and-trade program as evidence of his independence from the White House. But, as polls showed Americans growing jittery about gasoline prices, McCain apparently found it expedient in this area, too, to shift course. He took a dubious idea—lifting the federal moratorium on offshore oil drilling—and placed it at the very center of his campaign. Opening up America’s coastal waters to drilling would have no impact on gasoline prices in the short term, and, even over the long term, the effect, according to a recent analysis by the Department of Energy, would be “insignificant.” Such inconvenient facts, however, are waved away by a campaign that finally found its voice with the slogan “Drill, baby, drill!”

The contrast between the candidates is even sharper with respect to the third branch of government. A tense equipoise currently prevails among the Justices of the Supreme Court, where four hard-core conservatives face off against four moderate liberals. Anthony M. Kennedy is the swing vote, determining the outcome of case after case.

McCain cites Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito, two reliable conservatives, as models for his own prospective appointments. If he means what he says, and if he replaces even one moderate on the current Supreme Court, then Roe v. Wade will be reversed, and states will again be allowed to impose absolute bans on abortion. McCain’s views have hardened on this issue. In 1999, he said he opposed overturning Roe; by 2006, he was saying that its demise “wouldn’t bother me any”; by 2008, he no longer supported adding rape and incest as exceptions to his party’s platform opposing abortion.

But scrapping Roe—which, after all, would leave states as free to permit abortion as to criminalize it—would be just the beginning. Given the ideological agenda that the existing conservative bloc has pursued, it’s safe to predict that affirmative action of all kinds would likely be outlawed by a McCain Court. Efforts to expand executive power, which, in recent years, certain Justices have nobly tried to resist, would likely increase. Barriers between church and state would fall; executions would soar; legal checks on corporate power would wither—all with just one new conservative nominee on the Court. And the next President is likely to make three appointments.

Obama, who taught constitutional law at the University of Chicago, voted against confirming not only Roberts and Alito but also several unqualified lower-court nominees. As an Illinois state senator, he won the support of prosecutors and police organizations for new protections against convicting the innocent in capital cases. While McCain voted to continue to deny habeas-corpus rights to detainees, perpetuating the Bush Administration’s regime of state-sponsored extra-legal detention, Obama took the opposite side, pushing to restore the right of all U.S.-held prisoners to a hearing. The judicial future would be safe in his care.

In the shorthand of political commentary, the Iraq war seems to leave McCain and Obama roughly even. Opposing it before the invasion, Obama had the prescience to warn of a costly and indefinite occupation and rising anti-American radicalism around the world; supporting it, McCain foresaw none of this. More recently, in early 2007 McCain risked his Presidential prospects on the proposition that five additional combat brigades could salvage a war that by then appeared hopeless. Obama, along with most of the country, had decided that it was time to cut American losses. Neither candidate’s calculations on Iraq have been as cheaply political as McCain’s repeated assertion that Obama values his career over his country; both men based their positions, right or wrong, on judgment and principle.

President Bush’s successor will inherit two wars and the realities of limited resources, flagging popular will, and the dwindling possibilities of what can be achieved by American power. McCain’s views on these subjects range from the simplistic to the unknown. In Iraq, he seeks “victory”—a word that General David Petraeus refuses to use, and one that fundamentally misrepresents the messy, open-ended nature of the conflict. As for Afghanistan, on the rare occasions when McCain mentions it he implies that the surge can be transferred directly from Iraq, which suggests that his grasp of counterinsurgency is not as firm as he insisted it was during the first Presidential debate. McCain always displays more faith in force than interest in its strategic consequences. Unlike Obama, McCain has no political strategy for either war, only the dubious hope that greater security will allow things to work out. Obama has long warned of deterioration along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and has a considered grasp of its vital importance. His strategy for both Afghanistan and Iraq shows an understanding of the role that internal politics, economics, corruption, and regional diplomacy play in wars where there is no battlefield victory.

Unimaginably painful personal experience taught McCain that war is above all a test of honor: maintain the will to fight on, be prepared to risk everything, and you will prevail. Asked during the first debate to outline “the lessons of Iraq,” McCain said, “I think the lessons of Iraq are very clear: that you cannot have a failed strategy that will then cause you to nearly lose a conflict.” A soldier’s answer––but a statesman must have a broader view of war and peace. The years ahead will demand not only determination but also diplomacy, flexibility, patience, judiciousness, and intellectual engagement. These are no more McCain’s strong suit than the current President’s. Obama, for his part, seems to know that more will be required than willpower and force to extract some advantage from the wreckage of the Bush years.

Obama is also better suited for the task of renewing the bedrock foundations of American influence. An American restoration in foreign affairs will require a commitment not only to international coöperation but also to international institutions that can address global warming, the dislocations of what will likely be a deepening global economic crisis, disease epidemics, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and other, more traditional security challenges. Many of the Cold War-era vehicles for engagement and negotiation—the United Nations, the World Bank, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—are moribund, tattered, or outdated. Obama has the generational outlook that will be required to revive or reinvent these compacts. He would be the first postwar American President unencumbered by the legacies of either Munich or Vietnam.

The next President must also restore American moral credibility. Closing Guantánamo, banning all torture, and ending the Iraq war as responsibly as possible will provide a start, but only that. The modern Presidency is as much a vehicle for communication as for decision-making, and the relevant audiences are global. Obama has inspired many Americans in part because he holds up a mirror to their own idealism. His election would do no less—and likely more—overseas.

What most distinguishes the candidates, however, is character—and here, contrary to conventional wisdom, Obama is clearly the stronger of the two. Not long ago, Rick Davis, McCain’s campaign manager, said, “This election is not about issues. This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates.” The view that this election is about personalities leaves out policy, complexity, and accountability. Even so, there’s some truth in what Davis said––but it hardly points to the conclusion that he intended.

Echoing Obama, McCain has made “change” one of his campaign mantras. But the change he has actually provided has been in himself, and it is not just a matter of altering his positions. A willingness to pander and even lie has come to define his Presidential campaign and its televised advertisements. A contemptuous duplicity, a meanness, has entered his talk on the stump—so much so that it seems obvious that, in the drive for victory, he is willing to replicate some of the same underhanded methods that defeated him eight years ago in South Carolina.

Perhaps nothing revealed McCain’s cynicism more than his choice of Sarah Palin, the former mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, who had been governor of that state for twenty-one months, as the Republican nominee for Vice-President. In the interviews she has given since her nomination, she has had difficulty uttering coherent unscripted responses about the most basic issues of the day. We are watching a candidate for Vice-President cram for her ongoing exam in elementary domestic and foreign policy. This is funny as a Tina Fey routine on “Saturday Night Live,” but as a vision of the political future it’s deeply unsettling. Palin has no business being the backup to a President of any age, much less to one who is seventy-two and in imperfect health. In choosing her, McCain committed an act of breathtaking heedlessness and irresponsibility. Obama’s choice, Joe Biden, is not without imperfections. His tongue sometimes runs in advance of his mind, providing his own fodder for late-night comedians, but there is no comparison with Palin. His deep experience in foreign affairs, the judiciary, and social policy makes him an assuring and complementary partner for Obama.

The longer the campaign goes on, the more the issues of personality and character have reflected badly on McCain. Unless appearances are very deceiving, he is impulsive, impatient, self-dramatizing, erratic, and a compulsive risk-taker. These qualities may have contributed to his usefulness as a “maverick” senator. But in a President they would be a menace.

By contrast, Obama’s transformative message is accompanied by a sense of pragmatic calm. A tropism for unity is an essential part of his character and of his campaign. It is part of what allowed him to overcome a Democratic opponent who entered the race with tremendous advantages. It is what helped him forge a political career relying both on the liberals of Hyde Park and on the political regulars of downtown Chicago. His policy preferences are distinctly liberal, but he is determined to speak to a broad range of Americans who do not necessarily share his every value or opinion. For some who oppose him, his equanimity even under the ugliest attack seems like hauteur; for some who support him, his reluctance to counterattack in the same vein seems like self-defeating detachment. Yet it is Obama’s temperament—and not McCain’s—that seems appropriate for the office both men seek and for the volatile and dangerous era in which we live. Those who dismiss his centeredness as self-centeredness or his composure as indifference are as wrong as those who mistook Eisenhower’s stolidity for denseness or Lincoln’s humor for lack of seriousness.

Nowadays, almost every politician who thinks about running for President arranges to become an author. Obama’s books are different: he wrote them. “The Audacity of Hope” (2006) is a set of policy disquisitions loosely structured around an account of his freshman year in the United States Senate. Though a campaign manifesto of sorts, it is superior to that genre’s usual blowsy pastiche of ghostwritten speeches. But it is Obama’s first book, “Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance” (1995), that offers an unprecedented glimpse into the mind and heart of a potential President. Obama began writing it in his early thirties, before he was a candidate for anything. Not since Theodore Roosevelt has an American politician this close to the pinnacle of power produced such a sustained, highly personal work of literary merit before being definitively swept up by the tides of political ambition.

A Presidential election is not the awarding of a Pulitzer Prize: we elect a politician and, we hope, a statesman, not an author. But Obama’s first book is valuable in the way that it reveals his fundamental attitudes of mind and spirit. “Dreams from My Father” is an illuminating memoir not only in the substance of Obama’s own peculiarly American story but also in the qualities he brings to the telling: a formidable intelligence, emotional empathy, self-reflection, balance, and a remarkable ability to see life and the world through the eyes of people very different from himself. In common with nearly all other senators and governors of his generation, Obama does not count military service as part of his biography. But his life has been full of tests—personal, spiritual, racial, political—that bear on his preparation for great responsibility.

It is perfectly legitimate to call attention, as McCain has done, to Obama’s lack of conventional national and international policymaking experience. We, too, wish he had more of it. But office-holding is not the only kind of experience relevant to the task of leading a wildly variegated nation. Obama’s immersion in diverse human environments (Hawaii’s racial rainbow, Chicago’s racial cauldron, countercultural New York, middle-class Kansas, predominantly Muslim Indonesia), his years of organizing among the poor, his taste of corporate law and his grounding in public-interest and constitutional law—these, too, are experiences. And his books show that he has wrung from them every drop of insight and breadth of perspective they contained.

The exhaustingly, sometimes infuriatingly long campaign of 2008 (and 2007) has had at least one virtue: it has demonstrated that Obama’s intelligence and steady temperament are not just figments of the writer’s craft. He has made mistakes, to be sure. (His failure to accept McCain’s imaginative proposal for a series of unmediated joint appearances was among them.) But, on the whole, his campaign has been marked by patience, planning, discipline, organization, technological proficiency, and strategic astuteness. Obama has often looked two or three moves ahead, relatively impervious to the permanent hysteria of the hourly news cycle and the cable-news shouters. And when crisis has struck, as it did when the divisive antics of his ex-pastor threatened to bring down his campaign, he has proved equal to the moment, rescuing himself with a speech that not only drew the poison but also demonstrated a profound respect for the electorate. Although his opponents have tried to attack him as a man of “mere” words, Obama has returned eloquence to its essential place in American politics. The choice between experience and eloquence is a false one––something that Lincoln, out of office after a single term in Congress, proved in his own campaign of political and national renewal. Obama’s “mere” speeches on everything from the economy and foreign affairs to race have been at the center of his campaign and its success; if he wins, his eloquence will be central to his ability to govern.

We cannot expect one man to heal every wound, to solve every major crisis of policy. So much of the Presidency, as they say, is a matter of waking up in the morning and trying to drink from a fire hydrant. In the quiet of the Oval Office, the noise of immediate demands can be deafening. And yet Obama has precisely the temperament to shut out the noise when necessary and concentrate on the essential. The election of Obama—a man of mixed ethnicity, at once comfortable in the world and utterly representative of twenty-first-century America—would, at a stroke, reverse our country’s image abroad and refresh its spirit at home. His ascendance to the Presidency would be a symbolic culmination of the civil- and voting-rights acts of the nineteen-sixties and the century-long struggles for equality that preceded them. It could not help but say something encouraging, even exhilarating, about the country, about its dedication to tolerance and inclusiveness, about its fidelity, after all, to the values it proclaims in its textbooks.

At a moment of economic calamity, international perplexity, political failure, and battered morale, America needs both uplift and realism, both change and steadiness. It needs a leader temperamentally, intellectually, and emotionally attuned to the complexities of our troubled globe. That leader’s name is Barack Obama.

Saturday, 18 October 2008

Cry for me, Argentina

I've stated before in a number of posts that deficit and public debt reduction needs to become a major priority. Neither the Obama nor the McCain campaigns has this problem in their sights. The Obama tax plan is on balance better-funded, but it has far greater spending commitments, even before the revised EESA (which cuts at least $ 110 billion in revenue over 10 years) and Obama's latest $ 60 billion economic stimulus plan.

The numbers are becoming amazing, both in absolute terms and as a share of GDP. Remember that they do not include:

- State budget deficits

- Unfunded liabilities for social security, medicare and medicaid, at a time when the retirement of the baby boomer generation is creating a demographic bulge of retirees and senior citizens.

Lori Montgomery and Den Eggen report in today's Washington Post that the current surge in spending may push the annual deficit towards $ 1 trillion (Spending Surge Pushing Deficit Toward $1 Trillion).

Sarah Hernandez reports in Bloomberg that next year's deficit is already projected at above $ 500 billion, without taking into account EESA disbursements or new economic stimulus packages. (U.S. Debt May Grow $1 Trillion on Rescue, Barclays' Pond Says)

David Walker, former Comptroller General, issued a warning in a CNN commentary that according to his calculations, US public debt was on the order of $ 53 trillion is all unfunded liabilities are taken into account. (Commentary: America's $53 trillion debt problem)

My own post, back on 22 June ("Yes we can", or "No, we can't afford it") looks at some of the spending promises before EESA and the new stimulus packages were announced.

I can understand that in the last stages of a Presidential campaign, no self-respecting Presidential candidate is going to start promising tax increases and spending cuts across the board, on a scale necessary to reduce the debt. But unless the United States implements spending cuts (or revenue increases) on the order of at least $ 350 - 500 billion per year and allocate these towards debt reduction and re-funding Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare, the US will enter a debt spiral from which it will not easily exit.

Barack Obama has promised in the past to partially fund his spending plans through ending the War in Iraq. This campaign is costing about $ 10 billion a month, or $ 120 billion a year. This is mainly spent on combat operations deployment for 150,000 troops and support staff (not including contractors). Given the commitment to increase troops in Afghanistan, re-build depeleted military assets, and keep a "residual" force in Iraq (which I estimate would have to number between 35,000 - 40,000 troops), I don't see how more than $30 billion per year can be "saved" under optimal circumstances. That's a long way from funding either Obama's new spending promises (healthcare, infrastructure, middle class tax cuts, etc.) and debt reduction.

We should therefore not be surprised if many of the promises made during this campaign cannot be funded. If they are funded - through deficit spending - we should then not be surprised to see a far worse macroeconomic situation in 2010-2011. The dollar will plummet; the Fed will have to increase interest rates to fund debt instruments; economic growth will slow, and the US economy will start looking like Argentina's in the mid-1990s.

Friday, 3 October 2008

Recovering from the US Vice-Presidential Debate

I just finished watching the US Vice Presidential debate on CNN. It was simultaneously the most dispiriting thing I've seen in a long time, and the most chilling.

Sarah Palin stuck almost entirely to her talking points and her version of history. I didn't see a single trace of humanity or humility, or that she could be trusted to think rationally or analyse anything beyond what she had memorised. Speaking politely, the facts did not feature prominently in what she had to say.

Her attacks on Barack Obama were delivered in this chirpy monotone that made me wonder if the control room was somewhere else, perhaps in Nome, Alaska. It was so contrived, so bereft of original thinking and spontaneity that I’m horrified to think of her as Vice President of the United States–a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

I was also struck by the CNN opinion graph, that was playing out like a little seismograph at the bottom of the screen. This gadget raised far more questions than it possibly could have answered: who were these "uncommitted Ohio voters?" Were they female or male? Young or old? How many were there? What education and income level did they have? How were they voting, exactly?

At the beginning of the debate, Sarah Palin was getting a high response for moral platitudes and tinned comments that had all the substance of marshmallow soup. The surge was surged to death; John McCain was ceaselessly intoned as the next messiah; the masses were addressed without the filter of the mainstream media. Repent, ye wicked media. Vade retro, Satanas.

And besides this, the medley of cloying, irritating words: "maverick," "no preconditions," "nucilar," “white flag of surrender,” “Joe Sixpack.” Was she speaking English, or was she speaking code? I had to change channels several times during the debate: watching the weather forecast on Greek public TV was more substantive, even soothing.

There were only two parts of the debate which I felt were vaguely interesting:

• When Joe Biden choked up over raising his sons as a widowed father;

• When Joe Biden unequivocally condemned Dick Cheney as the most dangerous VP in history. We need to hear more of this.

I was not impressed with the spending priorities of the two VP candidates – and the two campaigns. If the House passes EESA today, the public debt will swell to at least $ 11.3 trillion, out of a current GDP estimate of about $ 14.4 trillion. Unless we start a radical programme to pay down this debt, America will go bankrupt in 6-8 years, perhaps even sooner. Neither candidate mentioned debt reduction, yet this is the single most important priority, and will determine the extent to which the spending promises–renewable energy, healthcare “credits”, Iraq–can be financed.

Biden made a much more coherent statement about the role of the VP in the Obama administration, and I like the fact that he would be the point man on getting legislation through Congress. I had the impression that he and Obama have put a lot of through into planning and priorities, but they are still working on the costs.

In contrast, I didn’t see any such evidence from Sarah Palin. All I saw was the same dispiriting mix of lies, distortions and exaggerations:

• You can’t offer a “healthcare tax credit” and cut taxes. What’s the “credit” exactly? It’s a deduction from Federal income tax, obviously, and therefore the Federal budget. So the amount spend on the “credit” has to be reimbursed from other tax sources, or by cutting government spending (which is impossible given the spending promises and deficits).

• Troop levels in Iraq have not fallen to below pre-surge levels.

• She may have cut taxes in Alaska, but Alaska has benefitted from higher revenue due to a surging oil price which coincided with the years she has been elected governor (the last 2 years). Amazing how that's never mentioned. So her tax cuts have, in effect, been financed by all those people using oil. What you give with one hand, you take with the other.

• Her cheerleading for energy independence–through more drilling–is absurd. America’s domestic petroleum energy resources are nowhere near enough to offset petroleum imports. Energy independence is a myth.

• How can John McCain be such a maverick when he’s voted fully in line with Republican initiatives, spent so much time in Washington, and now has a campaign run by Republican lobbyists? Does anyone really believe this?

Over these past 8 years, I haven’t stopped asking myself: where has all the Republican political talent gone? Is this the best they can do? Is this the best America can do?

Is a President who comes to power based on a campaign founded on lies and misinterpretations legitimate? At what point does John McCain’s self-professed honour turn into dishonour? Is the fight for the Presidency worth the high cost of destructiveness and duplicity that we see every day in the media?

Read Sarah Palin’s comments, delivered towards the end of the debate:

"But even more important is that world view that I share with John McCain. That world view that says that America is a nation of exceptionalism. And we are to be that shining city on a hill, as President Reagan so beautifully said, that we are a beacon of hope and that we are unapologetic here. We are not perfect as a nation. But together, we represent a perfect ideal."

I believe that increasingly, American exceptionalism has become American delusion. You can’t possibly claim to represent a perfect ideal, when all you do is spin out lies and negativity while espousing politics that so clearly favour a few rich special interests at the expense of the large majority of the population, the environment and the future.

I’m sickened by the fact that this kind of rhetoric is so clearly in contrast with the reality of political achievement, and yet still so widely believed. With every election, I’m afraid that my faith in politics and the future of this country is further eroded, until I wonder what will be left.

Thursday, 18 September 2008

A response to Brendan

Hi Brendan!

Thanks for your comment. I always enjoy receiving your feedback. Here's a partial response to the issues you have raised.

1. Obama’s Health Care Promises
I unfortunately don't believe the Obama Administration will be able to finance its health care plan. At present, Medicare and Medicaid are already creating serious spending problems, as I'm sure you know, even though they are highly flawed systems (in terms of staggered deductibles and lack of government-mandated prices). Although a partial reform of either system would no doubt improve effectiveness, the growing demographic trend of senior citizens and the impending retirement of the baby boomer generation means that there will be a major funding problem in the "paygo" system in the next 25-30 years. Unless, of course, the US admits greater numbers of legal immigrants, increases payroll taxes, increases the minimum wage, or transfers tax income from other revenue sources to pay for these programmes.

Extending public healthcare to the majority of younger and middle aged citizens excerbates the problem, and requires at least three conditions to be successful:

(a) Very high start-up and ramp-up funding commitments, which currently neither the US federal nor state governments have the means to finance given its perilous public debt.

(b) An assumption that the economics of the system work only if employees and insured foresake private sector health insurance, and are content to trade off higher taxes (probably on payroll) in exchange for lower direct insurance costs. In my experience with mandatory public health insurance, most insured are unhappy with the necessity for high mandatory contributions, while they often take out supplemental insurance to cover the gaps in the public system. The US income tax system is already very fragmented and uncompetitive, and the sum total of US taxes (federal and state) are very high. Who is actually going to pay for public healthcare?

(c) A different demographic situation quite unlike the one the United States currently finds itself in. Please look at most objective studies on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid funding projections, and offset these against the rise of US federal and state debt, and particularly unfunded pension liabilities which may amount to more than $ 200 trillion according to some studies. (The US GDP is currently about $ 14 trillion).

I can do some back-of-the-envelop figures if you will, but not this week (my schedule is really busy at the moment). In the same spirit, however, I would ask you to provide me with one example of a public healthcare system that has been developed in a US state, which has been within budget over the first four years of operation.

No public healthcare initiative that I know of, starting from an equivalent situation to that in which the US finds itself, has ever stayed within its public budget. Launching such a system given the current Federal budget situation and the demographic situation in the next 4-8 years will be financially unsustainable and lead to massive debt which cannot be offset by a reduction in the spending on the Iraq war.

If you like, let's revisit this conversation four years from now and see how the public medical insurance situation in the United States has changed. With your permission, I won’t get into analysing the range of other promises made by either candidate, unless you specifically want me to.

2. Foreign Policy
I believe that no major changes in US foreign policy will be made that will contribute to a fundamental solution to most of the current critical challenges we face, let alone emerging challenges. This is regardless of which candidate is elected in November.

Let's take just four critical issues, and leave issues like Guantanamo Bay aside: Guantanamo Bay is a problem solely determined by US decision-making; real foreign policy problems are not - other actors have a say. It is also not of any material importance: lives will not be saved by closing or relocating Guantanamo, which could not be saved by incarcerating prisoners elsewhere. Such a decision is a uniquely American one to make. It is a distraction, although obviously an unwelcome and unconstitutional one.

Afghanistan
There is no long-term US strategy for victory in Afghanistan. There is no vision for what a stable, successful Afghanistan might look like, or how it would interact with its neighbours. There is no understanding of how long this might take (in my opinion, it will take at least one generation, or at least 20 years) or cost. There is no comprehensive, detailed or realistic analysis of the drivers, barriers and scenarios for such a vision, or a strategy for achieving it. If you have seen one, I would be very happy to read it.

Take just one factor: there cannot be victory in Aghanistan without a totally different political, economic and social situation in Pakistan. What solutions for helping Pakistan have you heard from the two candidates? The debate used to be about whether President Musharaf was an effective US ally or not, and currently its whether the US should carry out unilateral attacks within the Tribal Areas or not.

This is symptomatic of an extremely superficial approach: attacks on the Tribal Areas are not going to solve the core problem of Al Quaeda's or the Taleban's fundamental attractiveness as a social-political-religious force. If anything, it will increase that attractiveness, building the Taleban's identity as a movement capable of defeating Pakistani and US military forces.

Take another factor: there is abundant evidence to suggest that one main elements motivating the Taleban has been Pakistan's enmity with India. This has led the ISI to support the Taleban as a "fifth column", a potential source of jihadists against Indian troops in Kashmir.

How many times have you heard either the McCain or Obama campaigns mention Kashmir? What is US official policy on Kashmir? Are the tools chosen by the US government for working with the Pakistani and Indian governments at all conducive to regional stability and solving the Kashmiri problem? How would you address the disparity in the US approval for (and funding of) the Indian nuclear programme, and its official disproval of the Pakistani nuclear programme?

Iraq
Contrary to popular opinion, I consider it highly unlikely that the US will implement a full withdrawal from Iraq. I fail to see the strategic motive for doing so, particularly given the costs and sacrifices of the past seven years. Please consider:

(a) A full withdrawal from Iraq would prompt an almost certain Iranian takeover of parts of the country, and the collapse/secession of others. This amounts of a vast strategic setback to the United States and its allies, since Iranian presence in the oil-rich, Shia heartland can hardly be beneficial. Should this happen, Iran’s influence over Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria will increase, and new targets for Iranian-backed instability will be created.

(b) A US strategic presence will probably be assured by a long-term force profile of about 35-40,000 troops, spread between Iraq’s territory and neighbouring states. This is subject, of course, to having an Iraqi government that makes the right decisions, which currently cannot be assumed.

(c) Although combat operations will gradually decrease, the key approach in the short term will almost certainly be military. Should Obama fully withdraw from Iraq, and should Iraq collapse, the Democratic party will lose all credibility in the area of foreign policy, perhaps similar to the debacle of the failed Special Forces mission outside Tehran during the Carter administration. The damage to US vital interests will be profound.

The military issue notwithstanding, I ask again: what is the US vision for a stable, successful Iraq? Are there any countries in the Middle East where such a vision is present in reality? What will be the long-term costs of our engagement in Iraq, and what impact will these have on other policy areas. If you have any signs that the Obama or McCain campaigns are thinking seriously about Iraq besides the political issue of military withdrawal, I would appreciate your input.

Iran
The major challenge of the incoming administration will be dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambition, which can only be addressed in the context of its broader place in the political, religious and economic framework in the Middle East and SE Asia. This issue cannot be solved militarily, and it certainly cannot be solved through the wishful, short-term thinking currently espoused by successive US administrations, as well as the two campaigns. Please consider only the following factors:

(a) Iran has a history of nearly 3,000 years of Persian culture and history, over which is overlain a more recent history of the Islamic faith and its subset, the Shia interpretation of that faith. This is not going to go away anytime soon, but will remain a powerful motivator for national(istic) political mobilisation, identity-building and engagement.

(b) The history of the last 60 years is, if anything, fuel on the fire in terms of nationalism. The US support for the Shah, the 1953 CIA-led coup d’etat against a democratically-elected government, the rise of Khomeini, the Iran-Iraq war, during which Iranians were killed en-masse by US-provided weapons, including chemical weapons. These events, real and re-imagined, are equally not going to disappear because of a UN or IAEA resolution on nuclear weapons. They are, if anything, a powerful reason why Iran should develop nuclear weapons, in the eyes of a certain part of the population.

(c) Given this past history, and given the US’s overwhelming support for Israel and its undeclared nuclear force, it is the utmost hypocrisy for the US to press for an end to the Iranian nuclear programme. Sad, but true. This is not to say I am in favour of Iran developing nuclear weapons: this thought fills me with horror. But the vapid declarations of successive US administrations, apparently marching in lock-step with the Israeli government and various lobby groups, is not a recipe for success.

(d) Iran is one of the most populous countries in the region, and with its present demographic growth rates will continue into the near future. Its major challenge will remain how to trade off religious extremism and economic growth. Its major political challenge is how to break its encirclement by US military power (Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf) to exercise its growing “great power” status/aspiration.

(e) The demographic trends may present the most hope for a future political engagement, and “normalisation”, of Iranian society. The aspirations of the young are very different from the religious-military elites currently in power. Any change in Iran will be a change in the political role of the overwhelmingly younger population, who are concerned with the same issues young people everywhere are: developing their own identity, finding a job and self-respect, experiencing new cultures and influences. Policy tools towards the young and female populations, who are currently excluded from power, should be developed: university exchanges, cultural exchanges, employment opportunities, education, etc. A generational change in perceptions, history and political interaction is required. A bombing campaign will disenfranchise these groups further, and consolidate the current regime’s force through incendiary nationalism.

(f) Iran’s continuing support for Hezbollah and Hamas, and its ability to partner with secular regimes who are both harmful (e.g. Syria) and helpful (e.g. Turkey) to US policy is set to continue. A bombing campaign against Iran will only accelerate this support, since Iran will act in increasingly hostile, covert means.

There needs to be a comprehensive engagement with Iran in order to solve the problem. At this stage, I would argue that the nuclear issue is a non-issue: we have no means of solving the nuclear issue unless we solve the long-term motivating factors which have led Iran to seek nuclear weapons in the first place. The nuclear programme is now a matter of national pride, a last defence against “the Great Satan”, and a potent demonstration of Iranian science and competence.

Does current US policy do anything to solve this issue, besides view the problem through the seductive prism of a military solution? What options do the McCain and Obama campaigns provide, besides blanket statements about Iran’s nuclear weapons?

Israel
I’ve left this subject for last. US policy towards Israel remains the single greatest barrier to achieving diplomatic normalcy in relations with the large majority of countries in the Middle East. Israel’s continuing settlement policy, its overwhelming military dominance and willingness to use it in populated areas, the power of its lobbyists in Washington, its treatment of Palestinians and its recent incursion into Lebanon are a barrier to any kind of lasting solution.

The US willingness to back Israel at all costs, even when Israel takes steps that abrogate previous agreements, will cost the US much more in blood, treasure and credibility than we can currently imagine. “What goes around comes around”, I’m afraid to say, and as long as we support policies which are so manifestly detrimental to fundamental human rights and well-being, we should not be surprised when even more dangerous terrorist attacks are unleashed against us.

US foreign policy needs to be re-balanced:

(a) The Arab countries are far greater in importance and population than Israel. A realist foreign policy should focus on developing comprehensive relations with the Arab states, and not only through the prism of weapons sales and oil deals.

(b) US policy towards Israel should be steered away from military assistance towards other forms of assistance. The knee-jerk response of a large annual arms deal needs to be re-thought.

(c) If the US is to be engaged in the peace process, it needs to be a consistently fair partner. The elections in Gaza, for instance, were fully backed by the US: Hamas was elected. When the “Road Map” is repeatedly violated by Israeli settlements, the wall-building and military incursions, Israel needs to be brought to task and there need to be real counter-measures.

(d) A lot more has to be done to support the Palestinian side, either to the elected government or, if necessary, to ordinary people. There are plenty of Palestinians living in the US and Americans of Palestinian descent who would be ideal for this task, and who would be glad to help. Unless the ordinary people “disconnect” from Hamas’ social welfare network, political dominance will pass into the hands of the extremists. What would be the impact on US relations if for every $ 10 given to Israel, $ 10 in non-military aid were given to Palestinian causes?

Until now, both the Obama and McCain campaigns have engaged in the same reflexive bowing and scraping to the AIPAC lobby. There is no new thinking there, no real approach to a comprehensive solution. US foreign policy has been a total failure in this area, and one of the main enablers of the 9/11 attacks and the rise of Al Quaeda. Given the rapid advances in technology and inter-connectedness, we should not be at all surprised if future attacks against the US and our allies are launched, in part motived by the Israeli occupation of Palestine.

Please don’t mistake this statement as anti-Israeli, or anti-Semitic. I fully support Israel’s “right to exist”, and I fully support the Jewish religion’s right to free worship. I am against acts of terrorism and violence, against any target, and I am against religious and political extremism in any form.

I look at this issue objectively, and dispassionately: all sides have made grave mistakes in the history of the creation and growth of Israel: Western countries, Arab states, Israelis, Palestinians, the Soviet bloc. If you look at the history of the Jewish and Palestinian peoples in the last 125 years, you would conclude that there are few more shameful episodes in human history.

Yet the answer today is not more of the same, but a fundamentally new approach to solving the problem. This will not be easy, and I certainly don’t have the solution. But unless we approach things differently, you and I will be having the same discussion four years from now. Which I would welcome, of course, but I do wish we could be discussing more positive developments in human achievement!

To come back to your original question: Yes, Barack Obama has engaged in sit-down discussions and speeches and policy documents, as has John McCain. But these are far from offering a comprehensive solution to a series of very intractable problems. The US administration – as the two candidates – are focussing on symptoms, not root causes. They are seduced by the myth of US military power as offering a basic solution to problems which have been, in large part, caused by US military power (or assistance), or a heavy-handed US approach to international law and basic tenets of international law and human rights.

Look at the record of US involvement in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Israel/Palestine, and you will see a record of coups d’etat, invasions, overt and covert military assistance, support for “friendly” dictators, support for torture, a preponderance of military assistance, and a range of other behaviours which are questionable, if not shameful.

The American people are apparently not aware of this record, although there are abundant sources from respectable US and international sources for them to find out, if they were truly interested. Things have been done in their name which, if they were done in Peoria or San Fransisco or Santa Fe, would have been inconceivable.

I fail to see how US foreign policy will solve problems if it is conducted against the fundamental values enshrined in our constitution, our national law or international law. We are inflicting our policies on people who have the same basic human motivations and needs that we do.

In a global society, how much longer do you think this can last without serious repercussions? Are we still living in the 1950s, when people had no alternative sources of information, no means of travel, and traditional political elites and family structures dominated? Of course not. We live in a fragmented, constantly-changing, inter-connected world, where everyone has access to the Internet, satellite TV and Western Union, and where the main battle tends to be one for attention rather than territory.

In this milieu, what we see from the US Presidential candidates is the same vapid, empty superficiality and stupidity that has been practised in the last 50 years. Sound bites are not a substitute for an objective, rational look at the facts, and rational solutions. I'm very much afraid that I do not see much cause for hope in “Change we can believe in” – just more empty promises.

This is the reason why although I am voting for Barack Obama in November, I have little hope that things will fundamentally change in the next four years. There is nothing in the record of US foreign policy in the last 25-30 years which gives me any great hope for the future. As demographic trends drive fundamental changes in the US and global economy and society in the next 25-30 years, I must confess I grow even more pessimistic, which is what led me to make the statement you have objected to:

"Neither party offers a comprehensive policy platform that addresses both economic competitiveness (education, tax reform, manufacturing, energy efficiency, legal reform, public sector reform) and social competitiveness (education, health care, environment) in any convincing way.

Neither party, or candidate, offers a credible plan for funding their many promises.

Neither party addresses the paradigm shift in economic, political, demographic, social and technological trends that have been occurring since 1990, and will dominate the next 25-30 years. "

Please, convince me I am wrong. I would like nothing better, believe me!

Warmly,

Philip

Tuesday, 9 September 2008

Bingo: the McCain / Palin Bounce

As predicted, the McCain / Palin ticket have benefited from a bounce in the polls. CNN reports that McCain and Obama are tied, at 48% each, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp poll released on Monday afternoon.

A USA Today/Gallup poll taken over the weekend shows a 4% lead for McCain over Obama, with a 50% of respondents favouring McCain versus 46% for Obama.

Will this last? Apparently only a limited number of Hillary Clinton’s supporters have decided to back Obama, while the Republicans themselves are only just starting to get organised. It’s probably too early to tell: I anticipate the polls will swing closer towards a tie as we progress towards October. It’s going to be a hard race, and will most likely be decided by get-out-the-vote on Election Day.

This may come as a shock to most Democratic supports, who can’t imagine why their candidate isn’t further ahead in the polls. Nothing should be taken for granted at this stage.

Some other things to keep track of:

· David Frum’s superlative article Times entitled “The Vanishing Republican Voter” appeared in the September 5th New York Time. This article explores the links between rising inequality and political orientation in the United States. If you read one article this week, it should be this one.

· The Republican Base is back. As predicted, Palin’s selection has changed the game for the GOP. Alec MacGillis covers the new energy injected into one core constituency of the Republican party in a perceptive article, “For the Republican Base, Palin Pick Is Energizing” in Monday’s Washington Post.

I’ve been slightly mystified by the Democratic reaction to the Palin pick. Pundits, bloggers and others are making the mistake of analysing this choice rationally, i.e. in terms of performance. Don’t. Sarah Palin’s value is as a symbol of achievement, an inspiration, rather than a statement of the achievements themselves. She is dynamite, and her nomination alongside John McCain has changed the game and may–if the Republican base catches up–win the election.

Sunday, 7 September 2008

Stranger, spare a thought for Afghanistan

The FT’s Editorial Comment on Afghanistan ("Afghan Harvest," August 27th, 2008) paints a grim, succinct picture of the role of economic development and security in that country, and why the struggle for security may fail.

In a nutshell, conditions in Afghanistan are deteriorating. The Taliban and its sponsors have taken a page from classic insurgency strategy, and are interdicting convoys carrying fuel, food and humanitarian aid from Kabul to the south. The recent attack on French paratroopers 40 miles from Kabul is another indication of their ability to strike at will throughout the country. If this reminds anyone of the Viet Cong strategy in Vietnam, it should be no surprise.

Afghanistan is a country of some 38 million people, 80% of whom are Sunni, and divided into over 30 major ethnic groups, of which the Pashtun and Tadjik are estimated as the largest. The terrain is extremely rugged, and transport links are vital to assuring basic economic activity. It is one of the poorest countries in the world, and among the least developed on the UNDP's Human Development Index , when it is ranked at all.

In this environment, it should come as no surprise that the conditions for insurgency are flourishing. The Taliban has maintained its fundamental attractiveness as a political, social and religious force among a significant segment of the Afghan population, particularly in the Pashtun-dominated south-east of the country, bordering Pakistan. The actions of the US-led NATO alliance appear to be fanning the flames of the insurgency, either through brutal air assaults which lead to high “collateral damage” among civilians, or due to the humiliating way in which most military patrols interact with civilians.

For a review of the latter, just turn on CNN and watch how the average military patrol speaks with, frisks and detains Afghans. In a culture where possession of firearms is not only a necessity, but a cultural heritage, the fact that someone can be arrested apparently for possessing a firearm is slightly absurd. Beyond this, the fact that these people are searched, at gunpoint, in full view of other males and occasionally females, must go against every cultural and social tenet in the book. In other words, it’s a major humiliation, in a country where wars have been started for less.

There is no easy solution to this specific problem, and I don’t raise it with an alternative solution in mind. The key to defeating an insurgency is security, which would allow the conditions for economic growth, political engagement and social modernisation. Although the Afghanistan Compact provides a well-thought, well-intentioned strategic framework for doing so, it’s clear that the implementation of this framework is not sufficiently resourced.

Consider that the Afghanistan Compact provides for three key pillars of activity:

1. Security
2. Governance, Rule of Law and Human Rights
3. Economic and Social Development

In this post, I will focus primarily on the first pillar, security, since without it the remaining two pillars will be impossible to achieve. This is also an issue of prime importance, since it affects decisions made in the current US Presidential election, as well as long-term issues in international security.

In the last 2 years, the Taliban have regrouped and taken the fight to major population centres outside the south-west of the country. They are interdicting the major transport axes to and from Kabul, and are mounting attacks against major military bases and within Kabul itself. In 2007, for instance, the Taliban launched a suicide bombing attack outside Bagram air base during Vice President Cheney’s visit. The number of US and ISAF casualties in Afghanistan has been rising, and US casualties are surfacing as a sound bite in US political coverage.

There are a number of root causes to government's inability to control security:

Insufficient Troops
There are not enough ISAF or Afghan boots on the ground to provide security and defeat the insurgency. ISAF reports a total of 52,700 troops, including National Support Elements. According to the Congressional Research Service (report available from the Federation of American Scientists), the US has a total of 48,250 troops deployed in-country as of June 1, 2008, of which about 60% are tasked to ISAF, with the remainder of Operation Enduring Freedom.

Assuming that 52,700 ISAF troops are joined by the 40% of US troops in OEF (19,300 troops), then there are a total of 72,000 western troops in-country. Of these, a number of German, French and other troops contributing to ISAF are stationed in the north of Afghanistan, and are not deployable to conflict regions. To this, we can add the 46,000 troops of the Afghan National Army forces, but these are widely acknowledged to be insufficient for independent command.

An Unknown Enemy
We can only define a number of troops as “insufficient” if we know the nature and deployment of the enemy they are confronting. Here, unfortunately, we are operating in the dark. The Taliban enjoys apparently unlimited ability to deploy its forces, either from its strongholds across the border in Pakistan, or from its bases within Afghan territory. According to a 2007 article in the New York Times, there are approximately 10,000 Taliban insurgents, of which 2,000 – 3,000 are committed, motivated fighters. The Senlis Council estimated that the Taliban controlled approximately 54% of Afghanistan’s territory in November 2007. The Taliban’s leadership is widely reported to be based in Pakistan, which itself appears to be undergoing a rapid melt-down of national government authority, at least in the Tribal Areas.

Regional Enemies and Safe Havens
Afghanistan’s neighbours, primarily Iran and Pakistan, can hardly be considered friendly states. US security services have accused Iran of supporting the Taliban, particularly through provision of weapons and expertise. Although these charges have not been sufficiently proven, the fact that Iran is following an active strategy against US interests in Iraq and the Persian Gulf indicates that its role could easily change: Iran holds the initiative on the border, not the Afghan government.

The New York Times recently reported a meeting between the CIA and the new Pakistani Prime Minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, about the ISI’s support for the Taliban attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul. It’s also clear that although Pakistan has been trying to impose central government control on the so-called Tribal Areas, it has been failing. The government has lost any number of military engagements in the region, and the Pakistani Taliban has shown that it is up to the task of defeating government forces on its own territory. Whatever the case, the fact that both Iran and Pakistan are, de facto or de jure, hostile towards the United States (in the former case) and of Afghanistan (in the latter) indicates that the Taliban insurgency has a safe haven from which to plan and launch attacks in the country.

Opium
Perhaps the final element in the security situation is the cultivation of the opium poppy, which provides not only a high value crop for Afghan farmers, but finances the Taliban. Although recent reports indicate that the opium harvest is declining, with poppy cultivation down 19% over 2007, the laws of supply and demand mean that the Taliban will, if anything, gain income as prices rise in response to diminished supply. In the absence of foreign sponsors, the cultivation, processing and trafficking of opium provides a constant and reliable source of income, which until now neither ISAF, nor the UN, the Afghan government nor Operational Enduring Freedom have managed to shut down. Indeed, opium production is fuelling government corruption, with many reports questioning President Hamid Karzai’s inability to stop the trade.

The scale of the root causes of the security issue cannot be underestimated, and are complex. To define the Taliban as a group of ignorant Islamic fanatics is to confuse the issue, rather than to illuminate it. The Taliban’s religious and political philosophy, no matter how much we may disagree with it, is profoundly rooted in regional culture, history and current events. To “win hearts and minds” will be extremely difficult in the current situation, far more difficult than in Iraq, which can build on successive generations of secularism under Saddam Hussein and prior rulers.

Into this maelstrom, both US Presidential candidates, as well as President George W. Bush, have resolved to send more troops. Barack Obama has mentioned two combat brigades – about 7,000 troops – to Afghanistan. John McCain wants to send three additional brigades. President George W. Bush has announced plans to increase the troop commitment to Afghanistan as well, although this is contingent on the draw-down following the surge in Iraq.

Additional forces are welcome: there is no doubt about this. Yet this will certainly not be enough: a generation of international assistance for the second and third pillars of the Afghanistan Compact will be needed.

I wonder as well if the political dimensions of the Afghan conflict are being properly addressed, or even though about. The US-led troop presence of Afghanistan has now nearly completed 7 years since the original invasion in October 2001, following the Al Qaeda attack on the World Trade Centre on September 11th. As recounted in this article, the Taliban insurgency has gained ground in recent years. This leads me to raise a series of questions, particularly since I’m tired of hearing the bromide that “Afghanistan is too important to fail”:

1. How do we define success or failure?
2. What scenarios exist for success or failure in Afghanistan?
3. What drivers and barriers exist to success (and failure)?
4. What price is appropriate for assuring that Afghanistan succeeds?
5. Are we prepared to pay this price?

This is a highly complex subject, and requires extensive further reporting. But for the time being, if anyone is interested in this subject, I invite you to check the websites of the two candidates – Barack Obama and John McCain, and consider whether this is receiving anything near the attention is should be. The Obama campaign doesn’t even have a page on Afghanistan (although it does have pages on Iran and Iraq); John McCain’s campaign also lacks a page on Afghanistan, although it has issued a press release.

As with many other issues in this Presidential Campaign, we are hearing promises with something approaching blithe indifference to conditions on the ground, root causes and likely approaches needed to bring about a solution. I would not be surprised if four years from today, in September 2012, we are hearing the very same promises from two different candidates.

Friday, 5 September 2008

Another Great Speech

Wow! I didn’t know he had it in him – honestly. John McCain just gave a great acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. Although visibly uncomfortable at the beginning, he really hit his stride in his invocation of his captivity in the Vietnam war and how it changed him. Emotional, compelling: an eloquent testimony as to why John McCain is qualified to lead the United States of America.

As a result of the Republican Convention, I expect a bump in the polls, restoring the Republican “lag” to the Democratic campaign by about 2-3%, statistically insignificant given the problems with polling technology and sample selection. We may even see a Republican lead. Polls will no longer be as reliable as they have been in the past: much will depend on voter mobilisation, the ease of voting on Election Day, and the next two months of the campaign.

I’ve now spent some time observing the two conventions, and have just a few comments on the process:

a. The Republicans are relying on the heart: stirring images, patriotism, idealism. They ask us to forget the miserable record of the last 7.5 years of Republican administration. They focus on John McCain’s track record – his CV – and ask us to believe in this as an indication of future success, ignoring the rather poor policy recommendations on the McCain website. There is simply not enough detail, and not enough background on how to pay for things. This approach is effective: my impression is that the average citizen, and average family, wants to feel comfortable with the leader, and rely on them to sort out the problems. (Factors such as failed housing investments and high credit card debt are a good indication of the “average voter’s” economic and financial understanding, regrettably.)

b. The Democrats are relying on the head, the brain. They offer clear policies pitched to improve the lives of the majority of citizens. They are relying on an image of correcting past mistakes – even though they have controlled Congress since 2006, and have voted for many decisions before that. They focus on Barack Obama’s track record as one of a new reformer, even though his CV, objectively speaking, is essentially one of academia and legislation, not executive action, or business. This approach is currently effective among younger, college-educated, affluent voters. It remains to be seen whether it will be effective among the large majority of voters, who are of high school education, who have family incomes below $ 50,000 per year, and have far less social sophistication than the candidate.

In my opinion, neither the Iraq war nor “Foreign Policy” are major issues at the moment, but wedge issues, or issues affecting certain interest groups and affiliations who have largely already made up their minds. How different things are from 2006: America is now “winning” in Iraq, and the issue has faded from public consciousness, and public debate. There remains a total absence of real foreign policy strategy from both parties (not to mention the government) for dealing with global, regional and bilateral issues over the next 4 years. But this is par for the course in the last 20-25 years.

Neither party offers a comprehensive policy platform that addresses both economic competitiveness (education, tax reform, manufacturing, energy efficiency, legal reform, public sector reform) and social competitiveness (education, health care, environment) in any convincing way.

Neither party, or candidate, offers a credible plan for funding their many promises.

Neither party addresses the paradigm shift in economic, political, demographic, social and technological trends that have been occurring since 1990, and will dominate the next 25-30 years.

As a result, they are basically offering Band-Aids in an Intensive Care Unit: some Band-Aids are blue, some are red.

What are the risks? These are legend. On the Republican side:

• I have doubts as to whether John McCain’s health will let him see out the campaign, let alone his term if he is elected. He appears increasingly frail. While the “wise grandfather” role suits him well, his public appeal is limited by his age.

• The lack of detail on the McCain website is extremely worrying. Many platforms are heavily ideological in nature, yet suitable Orwellian. For instance, the “Workplace Flexibility” promise could be construed to mean fewer job protections for employees. There is absolutely no way the “spending” promises can be paid for by the tax plan. Nonetheless, the section on tax competitiveness for companies and entrepreneurs is compelling: the US has lost tax competitiveness relative to its competitors in the past 10-15 years.

• Is he evangelical enough? Will the “religious right” rally around to provide the same turnout as they did in 2004?

• Is his campaign working? On multiple measures, from fund-raising to local organisation to use of the Internet, the McCain campaign appears to be trailing the Obama campaign. To some extent, this margin can be compensated for by negative campaigning, but a lot will depend on Voting Day turn-out. The Obama campaign has been extremely well-run, and is adding new voter registrations at an impressive rate.

• The Republican star may be on the wane. The last 8 years, including the corruption, the scandals and the mismanagement, have created a tremendous burden to overcome. Together with the current economic downturn – which may or may not be measured in economic statistics useful to the “average worker” – will extract a price.

On the Democratic side:

• Although Obama is a compelling candidate to certain voter groups, he tends to over-reach and come across as arrogant in some contexts. In others, he cannot give a simple answer to a complex question. For me, this is natural; for a US Presidential Candidate, this is anathema. The sound bite rules on Main Street.

• The lack of experience, the intellectual background and the issue of racial identity provide a powerful reason among many voters to mistrust Obama, to project their own stereotypes and fears on him.

• The policy background is much clearer and more specific, but it would take a miracle to pay for everything. The ambitious nature of some reforms, such as healthcare, will absorb tremendous energy and financial resources. Implementation will also depend on a clean sweep, assuring Democratic control of the legislative and executive branches of government.

• Proposed solutions for international military engagements are not convincing. A withdrawal from Iraq will certainly not happen according to the campaign promise of a full withdrawal within 16 months. I estimate that at least 40,000 US troops will maintain a permanent presence in Iraq or its immediate vicinity (Turkey, Kuwait) to maintain as much stability as possible. To leave Iraq to its fate, which almost certainly means Iranian domination, would be a foreign policy blunder to disastrous proportions. The idea of stabilising Afghanistan by stationing 2 US combat brigades will, regrettably, not be enough either: a far higher engagement will be needed.

• The Democratic party appears united, but is in fact heavily divided. Unlike the Republican party, which only includes 3-4 coherent ideological interest groups, the Democratic party is trying to do far too many things at the same time. This is leading to promises that can never be fulfilled. The campaign is fuelled by outrage expressed over internet-based fora, usually by people with no real experience or understanding of what they are supporting (and how it links to other issues), focussing on a single issue. The Democratic ideological firmament comprises many stars in a single sky, each one claiming to be the sun and the source of all truth. This is not a recipe for success. Obama’s main challenge upon taking power will be to assure party unity and prioritise those major and minor issues that can be solved. Can this be achieved in the current cacophony? How long will the honeymoon last before the various components of the Democratic party base splinter and turn sour? Can the skills learned in a political campaign translate into executive effectiveness? It’s a long shot, in my opinion.

I’ve read a number of posts postulating the threat of an assassination of Barack Obama, some claiming that this is a certainty. My feeling (and hope) is that his Secret Service detail is capable of protecting him, but certainly this is a risk. Another threat is his background, which may contain surprises ranging not only from campaign finance, personal housing loans, or drug use, but other factors as well. The full story is probably yet to be heard, and there is already enough to “Swift Boat” his campaign.

Despite these risks, my bet is on Barack Obama winning the election by a 2-3% margin of the electoral vote, and a slightly higher margin of the popular vote. I believe he will run a disciplined campaign and prevail over the negative attacks which are sure to increase. Everything will depend on ground operations in the 72 hours preceding Election Day, and the day itself. He understands this, and his campaign is based on it.

However, I would not at all be surprised if John McCain wins the election. He still has time to put a strong ground operation in place and fine-tune his message to the different interest groups. His tax plan will probably gain major funding for the Republican party. If he can get the right team on board and run the right campaign, he has a very strong chance to win.

And, we may have an “October surprise” which will swing things McCain’s way. Such an event may include

- An Iranian or Iranian-affiliated attack on US forces in the Persian Gulf (including Iraq or Bahrain, or possibly Afghanistan), with a robust US response probably involving a heavy aerial bombing campaign.

- Another Al Quaeda attack on US soil, or probably on US interests in Europe, North Africa, the Horn of Africa or the Middle East and Near East. This will probably result in minor casualties – perhaps on the order of 150-200 fatalities – but would be enough to rally popular opinion behind a very hawkish candidate.

- The collapse of Pakistan, necessitating US intervention to secure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

- Major power actions, such as renewed Russian or Chinese actions in Central Asia or the Near East.

Of these four possibilities, I regard the first two as more likely, and having a greater impact, than the second two.

And now look at the bright side: two excellent campaigns, ideological coherent to specific supporter groups, with compelling candidates, fighting for the Presidency. The next two months promise to be extremely interesting, but how happy I am that this process occurs every four years, and not sooner.

McCain Picks a Winner

I feel John McCain picked a winner in Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential Candidate. She has a compelling resume and an easily-packaged track record, despite the many inconsistencies between her words and her approach. Her experience in general economic development is affected by the fact that Alaska’s economy is totally different from the remaining 49 states: it runs a large budget surplus due to energy production. And of course there is “TrooperGate” and a range of other issues and voting positions.

Yet on stage in St. Paul on September 3rd, she made an excellent impression, in a speech rich in political theatre. She came across as full of common sense and quiet achievement. She appears to be an ordinary person who has done extraordinary things, without the benefit of coat-tails or the establishment. I believe this aspect of her track record, and her character – I have no reason not to. She started out by joining the PTA, and the rest is history, as they say.

To attack her for her inconsistencies or lack of foreign policy experience will backfire and is in any case inappropriate. Is this election really about foreign policy in the eyes of the average voter? I'd say that's a highly doubtful proposition - and always has been, except in the most superficial of terms. She certainly has more executive experience than Barack Obama, and resonates more strongly with Main Street. She is a strong Vice Presidential candidate, and if John McCain were a little younger, would be perfect.

In picking Sarah Palin, John McCain has reversed the tenor of the campaign and seized the initiative. This is excellent political work, particularly given the multitude of problems against which he is running: the economic fall-out of the credit crunch, the war in Iraq, the unpopularity of President George W. Bush, and the superior campaigning of the Obama campaign. The first day of the Republican convention opened in what appeared to be disarray, with less-than-spectacular results, with the uncertainty of cancellation due to Gustav’s landfall. Yet what a difference 2 days makes.

On Wednesday night, Sarah Palin restored momentum to the Republican campaign, rallied the troops, and made a very compelling case for herself and her party. I'm impressed.

Saturday, 30 August 2008

Pimp my Convention

I’ve been watching the Democratic Convention with something approaching disbelief on the one hand, and disgust on the other. Yes, I can understand the need for a slickly-packaged, made-for-TV event to rally the party faithful and usher in the Democratic candidate. But is it really necessary to this extent? Four days of saccharine, feel-good, ultra-politically-correct posing, culminating in fireworks? Has politics in the United States become so devoid of meaning, so ridiculous, that we need to sell it like a rock concert?

Honestly speaking, I can’t reconcile the political tradition that stretches back to James Madison, Thomas Jefferson, or George Washington with this spectacle we’ve been watching the past few days. I certainly can’t reconcile it with the two great Democratic figures Barack Obama invoked in his acceptance speech – Franklin D. Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. Neither Roosevelt nor Kennedy had to work this hard. Has the country changed, or the quality of the candidate?

The only thing I can reconcile this spectacle with is Caligula and the “bread and circuses” approach of the early Roman empire. The decadence, palpable commercialisation and lack of substance of the entire process is so blatant, that I’m surprised it’s taken seriously by so many. The drive to sell appears to have usurped any kind of self-respect, or respect for the voter’s basic intelligence. Instead, we must apparently advertise everything to everyone, as furiously as we advertise McDonald’s hamburgers or Coca Cola.

I find it entirely demeaning-not just to myself, but to the candidate-that we have to hear not only from Barack Obama, but from his wife and two children, not to mention about his mother and grandmother. None of these people are on the ticket, and from my perspective they have no bearing on my vote or my political priorities. We should respect their privacy and leave them out of it, and Barack Obama should have the strength of character to establish that some things are off limits and do not need to be marketed.

I also read with great interest that, inevitably, someone’s making money off the Convention. As I read in the International Herald Tribune (As conventions rev up, carmaker buffs its image, 28 August 2008), GM has provided 700 vehicles to the convention, some of them running on “waste beer”, or “beer that gets damaged during the production process.” Over 100 corporations, ranging from Qwest to FedEx to Hewlett Packard, “are treating the conventions as a glorified trade show.” The host committees of Minneapolis and Denver have raised over $ 112 million in private money so far.

Now, why would they be going to all that trouble? According to the IHT,

Donations to the host committees are tax-deductible, and they come with the promise of political access that is increasingly difficult to come by under ethics rules passed by Congress last year. Corporations are barred from making direct political contributions, but they can write six and seven-figure checks and get VIP credentials to the convention floor, invitations to private events with lawmakers and state officials, and the ability to plaster their logo and set up exhibition booths at events.”

What happened to “Change we can believe in?” Has it now been substituted with “Advertising we can believe in?” Or “Fundraising we can believe in?”

Now, in the middle part of my life, I am finally beginning to understand that William Butler Yeats line that was drilled into our heads in high school:

The best lack all conviction, while
the worse are filled with a passionate intensity
.

How in the world have things come to this?

Tuesday, 26 August 2008

US Elections - Will you take the Red or Blue Pill?

So, the Democratic Convention has finally opened. Back in January 21st, I predicted that John McCain would win the Republican nomination, and Hillary Clinton the Democratic one. I also predicted that if Hillary did win the nomination, it McCain would win by a small margin, whereas if Obama won it, it would be too close to call before the election: a 50-50 tie.

A little bit later, I, like many others, decided to switch votes (from Hillary) and back Obama. There were a range of reasons for this, but primarily the fact that I didn’t trust the Clintons to keep the business of the country above their personal business, and I didn’t feel that the incremental changes promised on the Clinton campaign site would lead to anything. To my vast surprise, he won the primaries. He’s run an incredible campaign, and it keeps getting better. By contrast, the McCain campaign gets worse and worse.

And this brings us to the Convention. I’m amazed. I knew we had entered the age of “MTV Politics”, but I didn’t quite realize how prevalent this is. We have the corporate sponsors, opening acts, balloons, everything except the fireworks, and I’m sure those will be coming soon. How fortunate the Convention was scheduled after the Beijing Olympics.

Pundit after pundit gravely inform me that this is all necessary, that elections aren’t about policy platforms, but about personality and running a good campaign? Really? How sad. Here I was complimenting myself on making an informed decision on who to vote for based on their internet platforms, and now I have to change my mind, again?

Quite simply, I believe that Barack Obama is the candidate most suited to lead the US in the 21st Century. This statement comes with a number of caveats: As I’ve already stated, I doubt Barack Obama will be able to pay for many of his promises. Many other promises – such as the pledge to re-negotiate NAFTA or tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – are unhelpful or disingenuous. The solutions to other problems, such as tax competitiveness and reform of the financial regulatory system, are barely mentioned. But on the whole, he’s the most suitable candidate. We can re-phrase this as the “least bad choice.”

And given that the other candidate promises to bankrupt the country by continuing business as usual, this is good enough. Despite my respect for his life story, I don’t see how John McCain’s foreign policy experience or “character” are the best options. As Frank Rich wrote on August 23rd: Does a bellicose Vietnam veteran who rushed to hitch his star to the self-immolating overreaches of Ahmad Chalabi, Pervez Musharraf and Mikheil Saakashvili have the judgment to keep America safe? Not to mention the Iraq invasion, and the fact that he apparently doesn’t use email. Hello?

I must also confess that I’ve entered the post-euphoric stage of political engagement in this election. Honestly speaking, “a pox on both your houses.” The entire process is ridiculous. A game show convention. Media stupidity. The war of polls. Negative advertising. Political promises that no one can keep, or are unrelated to the root causes of the problem (and therefore do not present a real solution). Projections that over $ 1.5 billion will be spent on the Presidential election alone this year.

It’s a disgusting, unwholesome mess which serves almost no useful purpose that I can see, except to seduce a number of participants in the belief of their own importance and, perhaps, relevance. Welcome to the “desert of the real.” Do we really have a choice, or is this all a grand illusion?