The sign with the hundred drachma note in our neighbourhood grocer asks "Perhaps its time has come?"
The second parliamentary election in Greece
will be held one week from today. Several Greek parties held general press
conferences today, while most print and broadcast media as well as online channels
are understandably focussed on this event.
There are two points regarding the upcoming
Greek elections which I believe will be crucial for understanding the outcome:
the interpretation of pre-election polling results, and actual voting on
election day.
In terms of pre-election polling: Most
public polls show a lead for New Democracy over SYRIZA by about 1.5-2%. My
understanding is that confidential polls ordered by New Democracy show much the
same result.
However, these results are often based on
voter intention, i.e. they answer the question “Who do you intend to vote for
in the next election?” If voter expectations are taken into account, several
polls show a clear lead for SYRIZA. Voter expectation is based on the question
“Who do you think will win the next election?”
Why is voter expectation important? In the
United States Presidential elections, for instance, voter expectations are
thought by some researchers to provide a more accurate prediction of electoral
outcomes that voter intention (see Rothschild and Wolfers: Voter
Intentions versus Expectations. Wharton Business School). Testing for voter
expectation is also a subtle means of reducing subjectivity, as it requires the
respondent to forecast a generalised result, rather than an individual
preference, as well as to account for potential imponderable or intangible
factors, such as voter motivation.
This second point, voter motivation, is
quite important for interpreting events on polling day. To put it mildly, I see
very little “grassroots” activity by the two major parties, PASOK and New
Democracy. In contrast, SYRIZA, KKE and Chryssi Avgi appear to have very
motivated ground operations in Athens. My evidence for this is anecdotal, but
nonetheless significant:
· For one week now, SYRIZA has
been airing television advertisements on nearly all major channels. SYRIZA also
has been buying billboards, not least of which are in bus stops—a clever move,
given the likely demographic-political background of voters targeted by these
adverts.
· For two weeks now, there have
been any number of small public gatherings by SYRIZA, KKE and Chryssi Avgi in
the north-eastern suburbs of Athens, as well as in the centre. On the road to
Marathon, for instance, each weekend there are groups of activities handing out
fliers. In the centre, I have seen Chryssi Avgi marches in small but visible
numbers, as well as SYRIZA events.
In contrast, I have seen no new media or
ground operations by the two mainstream parties. This may be due to economic reasons—it
is well-known that both parties have a debt of over EUR 250 million. But I
believe it is also due to the fact that in the case of PASOK, the party is
collapsing with the flight of unionists and other activist members to SYRIZA,
while in the case of New Democracy, there appears very little that can be done
on a mass movement scale in the main cities. In contrast, ND leader Samaras is
on a tour of regional cities, where he polled higher in the May 6th
elections.
The conclusion of these observations is
that:
· A get-out-the-vote (GOTV)
operation this Sunday will be crucial to success. In this respect, I expect
SYRIZA to have the edge, because they appear more motivated and more organised
in terms of sheer numbers and rage, particularly among younger voters.
· A major factor in determining
whether “undecided” voters vote will be the weather. In the May 6th
elections, approximately 30% of the electorate did not vote. Given that summer
weather has arrived, I expect that this number may remain stable or may increase, and that this too
will be in favour of SYRIZA.
· Finally, a main factor before
the elections will be the element of rage. This is turning into a main campaigning
tool of ND, SYRIZA and Chryssi Avgi, and is leading to different kinds of
scaremongering and negative PR in an effort to motivate their respective party
voters.
The economic situation is Greece is
worsening dramatically. While seasonal employment may rise during the summer
tourist season, all long-term macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators are
worsening. In this economic depression, a second election is being waged which
is resulting in a greater polarisation between voters and unrealistic expectations
being created through shameless demagoguery and mistruths on all sides of the
ideological spectrum.
The June 17th elections will
most likely result in another split parliament, with a weak government formed
which will likely be led by a weak SYRIZA coalition, but which may be led by a
weak New Democracy – PASOK coalition.
The determinants of this election will be
the weather, the share of non-voters and the extent to which the parties can
motive their supporters to vote on election day. These three points indicate
that there may be a higher probability of a SYRIZA victory than what may be
expressed in the polls to date. (This may change in the last week of the
campaign, which we understand will be vitriolic).
The problems of economic and political
governance remain, and will be amplified by the very tactics used in this
election, as well as by the intractable political and social issues of Greek
society and the Greek state. Political fragmentation and divisiveness have been
embedded at a systemic level: it is doubtful that any single party, or
coalition of parties, will have the political unity necessary to pass through the
structural reforms that Greece so urgently needs. It would also appear that
this fragmentation will last for a significant period of time, leading to inevitable
economic consequences.
To put it bluntly, one could conclude that
these elections, or rather the political activities which define the
inalienable democratic right to an election, are contributing to the problem
rather than to the cure.
© Philip Ammerman, 2012
Philip Ammerman is
Managing Partner of Navigator
Consulting Group and
European Consulting Network. He works in the field of investment management and
due diligence in Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East.
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