Sunday 17 June 2012

Second Exit Poll Estimate

The second exit polls (21:00) have been announced by Greek public television, based on consolidated results of several polling companies. These show an increase in New Democracy's support.  

NET Exit Poll
Political Party Share of Vote, % Seats in Parliament
New Democracy 29.5 128
SYRIZA 27.1 72
PASOK 12.3 33
Independent Greeks 7.6 20
Chryssi Avgi 7.0 18
Democratic Left 6.2 17
Communist Party of Greece 4.5 12
Total 94.2 300

The Ministry of Interior shows electoral results counted at 21:30:

Political Party Share of Vote, %
New Democracy 30.61
SYRIZA 25.87
PASOK 12.96
Independent Greeks 7.41
Chryssi Avgi 7.0
Democratic Left 6.01
Communist Party of Greece 4.4
Total 94.21

Should these numbers materialise, a government coalition of New Democracy and PASOK will render 161 seats, enough for a Parliamentary majority. However, PASOK is now saying it will not participate in a government without SYRIZA. 

I suspect final vote will be much closer between ND and SYRIZA, particularly once Athens and Thessaloniki votes are finally counted, and it may still be too early to discount a SYRIZA victory. 

© Philip Ammerman, 2012

Philip Ammerman is Managing Partner of Navigator Consulting Group and European Consulting Network. He works in the field of investment management and due diligence in Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East.

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