I learned of German
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s impending visit to Greece last week, and since then
find myself scratching my head in confusion.
What can she—or Prime
Minister Antonis Samaras—possibly think they will gain from this?
I have no doubt that
the Chancellor will express her “solidarity” with the Greek people while
insisting that Greece complies with the various loan agreements and implements
“structural reform.” This trip is a show of support for Prime
Minister Antonis Samaras, as well as a signal that Greece will remain in the
Eurozone. One can only complement the Chancellor on her willingness to spend a
full seven hours in Athens on this mission.
Yet there are good
reasons to doubt whether this trip will in fact generate any such positive
benefits. The Greek popular anger, misplaced or not, at Angela Merkel is
incandescent. With Greek unemployment at 25% and a net real GDP decline of 20%
between 2008 and 2012, the concept of solidarity is a largely theoretical one. The
main beneficiaries of any solidarity have been Greece’s (mainly European) financial
creditors, and every person living here knows this full well.
Despite draconian
security measures, including 7,000 police, a ban on demonstrations, the deployment
of snipers and anti-IED radio signal jamming, tomorrow will mark some of the
most extensive scenes of protest and violence seen in Greece in the last few
months.
Television headlines
around the world will be dominated by the typical scenes of flaming molotovs, hooded
youth throwing stones and police beating up civilians that we have become used
to. These scenes will outweigh any platitudes about solidarity: a picture is
worth a thousand words, and there will be plenty of pictures taken tomorrow.
Compounding the role
of demonstrations is the fact that many political parties and individual
politicians will be taking part. The GSEE Union, SYRIZA and Independent Greeks
have all announced their intentions of marching in tomorrow’s protests, and
presumably trying to break through to Parliament. (There are conflicting news
reports about whether the demonstrators will be able to reach the Parliament or
not). Smaller parties, such as Independent Greeks, which have been practically
invisible since the elections, will do everything they can to get back in the
media spotlight.
It is equally
impossible to understand how her “support” for Antonis Samaras translates into
anything realistic. The next round of austerity cuts are front-loaded and will
intensify Greece’s recession and unemployment, as they involve further cuts to
pensions, healthcare spending, public sector salaries, and others, as well as
higher taxes. Front-loading the EUR 13.5 billion in cuts will also result in
another 4-5% decline in GDP in 2013 in their own right.
We can therefore expect
the opposition parties to start their next electoral campaigns with photos of
Samaras smiling at Merkel, with the title “Germany’s Puppet” underneath them.
Rather than supporting Samaras, Merkel’s presence will be interpreted as a
visit by the paymaster to the pawn, coming as soon as it does before yet more
austerity cuts. The main beneficiaries of this visit will not be Samaras, but SYRIZA and possibly Golden Dawn.
Another intended
“beneficiary” of a Merkel visit is the international financial sector. Perhaps
Germany feels that a Merkel announcement that “Greece will stay in the
Eurozone” will part the metaphorical waters and allow sovereign lending to
resume. This is nonsense. Repeated Troika interventions have turned the Greek
economy into a basket case with no hope of rapid recovery or debt
sustainability. Having been steam-rollered in PSI, there is no way the private
sector will resume normal lending operations to the Greek government for at
least 5-10 more years. And rightly so.
Perhaps another [unstated]
reason for the visit is an attempt to show that she is genuinely interested in
Greece and the European ideal. Yet this occurs after years in which she has
repeatedly mentioned the Greek “bottomless pit” and “lazy workers” who “don’t
work hard” and “retire early” (all of which have been proven statistically
false) in political rallies and media interviews in Germany. These statements have
been carried worldwide by Bloomberg, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and
others. One statement to the contrary is hardly convincing. And given that
other stars in the German political firmament continue to say the same things, it
is an empty gesture.
Visiting Greece at
this time is similar to throwing oil on the fire. It gives the opportunity for
extremist political opinions to become all the louder, while offering nothing
of substance which would change either daily life or the debt situation. Together
with similar events occurring
across the Eurozone, it merely reinforces a popular narrative.
This reminds me
nothing so much of another “personal” Merkel initiative: her promise to campaign
in the French presidential elections together with Nicholas Sarkozy, which
made even less political sense than this visit.
I can only pray for moderation tomorrow; I await the all-too-predictable TV footage for
sure.
© Philip Ammerman, 2012
“You are very amiable, no doubt, but you would be charming if you would only depart.”
Nikos Malkouzatos wrote an extremely good article on the same subject, which is definitely worth a look: http://insidegreece.wordpress.com/2012/10/08/mrs-merkel-goes-to-athens-why/
ReplyDeleteVery well considered and written. Many of us here are questioning the purpose of this visit, and fear for the consequences.
ReplyDeletewww.leavingcairo.blogspot.com