Reuters published an analysis of Cypriot oil and gas development potential on March 22nd:
So far, an estimated 200 billion cubic
metres (bcm) of natural
gas worth $80 billion at current prices have been discovered in the
Aphrodite gas field in Cypriot waters.
The Cypriot government says that it hopes to
begin exports of liquefied natural
gas (LNG) from 2018, although most analysts say production is unlikely to
begin before 2020 and some doubt whether the fields will be developed at all.
"If Cyprus has found only 7 trillion cubic
feet (200 bcm) right now, that's not yet enough to think about doing LNG given
the number of projects ahead in the queue, such as the over 100 tcf of gas
already found in East Africa," said Kim Fustier, oil and gas analyst at
Credit Suisse.
Although I agree that the Cypriot fields
will be difficult to develop and export, it is important to note that the
initial finding of 7 trillion cubic feet concerns only block 12, which has been
explored by Noble. There are an additional 12 fields under exploration, so the
potential for further finds is high.
Navigator Consulting Group implemented a more
detailed review on Cypriot oil and gas on May 11th, 2012: we’ve
recently published this on our website: CyprusOil and Gas: Strategic Development Options.
Nevertheless, a direct result of the
financial crisis in Cyprus means less bargaining power over multinational
producers. And the result of US shale gas finds as well as additional fields
coming online probably means lower prices in the future.
Given this uncertainty, I can understand
why the Troika is not accepting a securitisation of future oil and gas revenues.
© Philip Ammerman, 2013
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