Tuesday, 28 April 2015

Notice of a probable Greek payment issue

Just a very quick note to the effect that Troika comments on Greece are now beginning to resemble comments made about Cyprus in February 2013. The issue of capital controls is now being raised semi-officially for the first time by various sources. It's hard to envision a decision on releasing the EUR 7.2 billion to Greece before May, given the national parliamentary procedures that need to be followed prior to a disbursement, assuming Eurogroup approval. I now believe we are heading for a partial government default in May (within 2 weeks), but it is difficult to see whether the government will honour its commitment to repay the IMF or whether domestic commitments will take precedence. A cessation of payments to farmers, EU projects, VAT refunds to exporters, and other public sector vendors is already in effect. 

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