Philip Atticus

Sunday, 17 June 2012

Greek Election – Next Steps

As of 22:30 Sunday evening, New Democracy is showing a wider poll result over SYRIZA. Antonis Samaras has made a victory acceptance speech at the Zappeio. Alexis Tsipras has telephoned Antonis Samaras to concede victory, and made a masterful speech a little while ago.

The wild card is now PASOK, which has stated that it will not participate in a government which does not include the participation of SYRIZA and Democratic Left (DIMAR). SYRIZA, in the meantime, has already declared that it will not participate in a government with New Democracy.

Evangelos Venizelos is apparently trying to maximise his pivotal position, but as with Antonis Samaras prior to November 2011, risks destabilising the entire electoral results.

Given this [apparent] conclusion, it is difficult to see how the next government will be formed without another 8-10 day negotiation period. It is really a pity that Greece’s political class, or segments thereof, are once again negotiating for their own benefit, rather than for the benefit of the country.

The latest electoral results from the Ministry of Interior:

Political Party	Share of Vote, %	Seats in Parliament
New Democracy	30.21	130
SYRIZA	26.38	70
PASOK	12.62	34
Independent Greeks	7.45	20
Chryssi Avgi	6.9	18
Democratic Left	6.05	16
Communist Party of Greece	4.48	12
Total	94.12	300

Philip Ammerman is Managing Partner of Navigator Consulting Group and European Consulting Network. He works in the field of investment management and due diligence in Europe, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East.

Channel 4 News Interview

Philip Ammerman was interviews on Channel 4 by Jon Snow on the Greek Elections.

Second Exit Poll Estimate

The second exit polls (21:00) have been announced by Greek public television, based on consolidated results of several polling companies. These show an increase in New Democracy's support.

NET Exit Poll

Political Party	Share of Vote, %	Seats in Parliament
New Democracy	29.5	128
SYRIZA	27.1	72
PASOK	12.3	33
Independent Greeks	7.6	20
Chryssi Avgi	7.0	18
Democratic Left	6.2	17
Communist Party of Greece	4.5	12
Total	94.2	300

The Ministry of Interior shows electoral results counted at 21:30:

Political Party	Share of Vote, %
New Democracy	30.61
SYRIZA	25.87
PASOK	12.96
Independent Greeks	7.41
Chryssi Avgi	7.0
Democratic Left	6.01
Communist Party of Greece	4.4
Total	94.21

Should these numbers materialise, a government coalition of New Democracy and PASOK will render 161 seats, enough for a Parliamentary majority. However, PASOK is now saying it will not participate in a government without SYRIZA.

I suspect final vote will be much closer between ND and SYRIZA, particularly once Athens and Thessaloniki votes are finally counted, and it may still be too early to discount a SYRIZA victory.

First Exit Polls in Greece

The first exit polls in Greece have been published. NET has the following results:

New Democracy 27.5% - 30.5%
SYRIZA 27% - 30%
PASOK 10-12%
Independent Greeks 6-7%
Chryssi Avgi 6-7%
Dimokratiki Aristera 5.5 - 6%
Communist Party 5 - 6%

Results are likely to change: there was a last-minute surge of mainly younger voters seen at many polling stations. Observers report that these may have been SYRIZA voters. These results are based on counting of about 5,500 votes from a sample of 8,000.

Saturday, 16 June 2012

Rage

Rage – Goddess, sing the rage of Peleus’ son Achilles,

murderous, doomed, that cost the Achaeans countless losses

hurling down to the House of Death so many sturdy souls,

great fighters’ souls, but made their bodies carrion,

feasts for the dogs and birds,

and the will of Zeus was moving toward its end.

The Iliad, translated by Robert Fagles

Reading the immortal opening lines of The Iliad, I understand why so many voters in Greece will cast their votes tomorrow for SYRIZA.

In contrast to the May 6^th election, the majority of people I know who have shared their electoral preference with me will vote for SYRIZA. These are people with multiple university degrees and serious work experience in Greece and abroad.

Why? Quite simply, the reason is rage.

There is rage at the political and economic elite of Greece, who for thirty years has pillaged the country, and now claims to be its saviour. New Democracy’s electoral position of “vote for us and the Euro, or for bankruptcy and the drachma”, is rank hypocrisy. It was New Democracy’s policies between 2004 and 2009 which led to Greece’s financial collapse. Many of the same people in the Karamanlis governments from this time remain in New Democracy, and are now vying for election.

There is rage at the fact that the mix of policies advocated by the Troika has failed the Greek people so miserably. As long as austerity was restricted to the public sector, it was bearable. But the Troika’s demand to end collective bargaining agreements and reduce the minimum wage has catapulted millions of private sector workers into wage slavery in a country where labour laws have never been properly enforced. Given that neither bank loans nor rents nor cost of living has been “devalued” in line with wages, one wonders exactly how this policy of impoverishment was supposed to work.

There is rage at the fact that Greece has been forced into a series of false choices by its European partners, and then condemned as being lazy and feckless by those same partners. Every Greek knows the story of defective German submarines and the bribes given to Greek politicians for these. Every Greek knows of Germany and France’s insistence to sell frigates, planes and tanks to Greece as a condition of the first bail-out.

There is rage at the fact that Greece was lent money at 5% in the first bailout by France and Germany to refinance French and German banks at face value, at a time when these same discounted Greek bonds by 30-40%.

There is rage at the fact that the ECB has lent banks EUR 1 trillion at 1%, so that these same banks can buy government bonds at 6%, while credit in the domestic market has evaporated, and many of these same banks are shorting both Greece and the Euro.

The results will be clear on Sunday evening. But whichever party is elected, it is difficult to see how the shining promises of European solidarity and a common future can be restored after what has happened—and continues to happen—in this country.

Sunday, 10 June 2012

A Brief Comment on Greek Polling and the June 17th Election

The sign with the hundred drachma note in our neighbourhood grocer asks "Perhaps its time has come?"

The second parliamentary election in Greece will be held one week from today. Several Greek parties held general press conferences today, while most print and broadcast media as well as online channels are understandably focussed on this event.

There are two points regarding the upcoming Greek elections which I believe will be crucial for understanding the outcome: the interpretation of pre-election polling results, and actual voting on election day.

In terms of pre-election polling: Most public polls show a lead for New Democracy over SYRIZA by about 1.5-2%. My understanding is that confidential polls ordered by New Democracy show much the same result.

However, these results are often based on voter intention, i.e. they answer the question “Who do you intend to vote for in the next election?” If voter expectations are taken into account, several polls show a clear lead for SYRIZA. Voter expectation is based on the question “Who do you think will win the next election?”

Why is voter expectation important? In the United States Presidential elections, for instance, voter expectations are thought by some researchers to provide a more accurate prediction of electoral outcomes that voter intention (see Rothschild and Wolfers: Voter Intentions versus Expectations. Wharton Business School). Testing for voter expectation is also a subtle means of reducing subjectivity, as it requires the respondent to forecast a generalised result, rather than an individual preference, as well as to account for potential imponderable or intangible factors, such as voter motivation.

This second point, voter motivation, is quite important for interpreting events on polling day. To put it mildly, I see very little “grassroots” activity by the two major parties, PASOK and New Democracy. In contrast, SYRIZA, KKE and Chryssi Avgi appear to have very motivated ground operations in Athens. My evidence for this is anecdotal, but nonetheless significant:

· For one week now, SYRIZA has been airing television advertisements on nearly all major channels. SYRIZA also has been buying billboards, not least of which are in bus stops—a clever move, given the likely demographic-political background of voters targeted by these adverts.

· For two weeks now, there have been any number of small public gatherings by SYRIZA, KKE and Chryssi Avgi in the north-eastern suburbs of Athens, as well as in the centre. On the road to Marathon, for instance, each weekend there are groups of activities handing out fliers. In the centre, I have seen Chryssi Avgi marches in small but visible numbers, as well as SYRIZA events.

In contrast, I have seen no new media or ground operations by the two mainstream parties. This may be due to economic reasons—it is well-known that both parties have a debt of over EUR 250 million. But I believe it is also due to the fact that in the case of PASOK, the party is collapsing with the flight of unionists and other activist members to SYRIZA, while in the case of New Democracy, there appears very little that can be done on a mass movement scale in the main cities. In contrast, ND leader Samaras is on a tour of regional cities, where he polled higher in the May 6^th elections.

The conclusion of these observations is that:

· A get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation this Sunday will be crucial to success. In this respect, I expect SYRIZA to have the edge, because they appear more motivated and more organised in terms of sheer numbers and rage, particularly among younger voters.

· A major factor in determining whether “undecided” voters vote will be the weather. In the May 6^th elections, approximately 30% of the electorate did not vote. Given that summer weather has arrived, I expect that this number may remain stable or may increase, and that this too will be in favour of SYRIZA.

· Finally, a main factor before the elections will be the element of rage. This is turning into a main campaigning tool of ND, SYRIZA and Chryssi Avgi, and is leading to different kinds of scaremongering and negative PR in an effort to motivate their respective party voters.

The economic situation is Greece is worsening dramatically. While seasonal employment may rise during the summer tourist season, all long-term macroeconomic and microeconomic indicators are worsening. In this economic depression, a second election is being waged which is resulting in a greater polarisation between voters and unrealistic expectations being created through shameless demagoguery and mistruths on all sides of the ideological spectrum.

The June 17^th elections will most likely result in another split parliament, with a weak government formed which will likely be led by a weak SYRIZA coalition, but which may be led by a weak New Democracy – PASOK coalition.

The determinants of this election will be the weather, the share of non-voters and the extent to which the parties can motive their supporters to vote on election day. These three points indicate that there may be a higher probability of a SYRIZA victory than what may be expressed in the polls to date. (This may change in the last week of the campaign, which we understand will be vitriolic).

The problems of economic and political governance remain, and will be amplified by the very tactics used in this election, as well as by the intractable political and social issues of Greek society and the Greek state. Political fragmentation and divisiveness have been embedded at a systemic level: it is doubtful that any single party, or coalition of parties, will have the political unity necessary to pass through the structural reforms that Greece so urgently needs. It would also appear that this fragmentation will last for a significant period of time, leading to inevitable economic consequences.

To put it bluntly, one could conclude that these elections, or rather the political activities which define the inalienable democratic right to an election, are contributing to the problem rather than to the cure.